| # | School | Team | A | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grand Valley State University | Lakers | 12 | 12 |
| 2 |  |
Michigan State University | Spartans | 18 | 18 |
| 3 |  |
University of Michigan | Wolverines 2 | 27 | 27 |
| 4 | |
University of Michigan | Wolverines 1 | 29 | 29 |
| 5 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 41 | 41 |
| 6 |  |
Hillsdale College | Chargers 1 | 51 | 51 |
| 7 |  |
Indiana University | Hoosiers | 53 | 53 |
| 8 | |
Hillsdale College | Chargers 2 | 61 | 61 |
| School | Team | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grand Valley State University | Lakers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
|
Michigan State University | Spartans | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
|
University of Michigan | Wolverines 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
|
University of Michigan | Wolverines 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 29 |
|
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
|
Hillsdale College | Chargers 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 51 |
|
Indiana University | Hoosiers | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | DNS | 53 |
|
Hillsdale College | Chargers 2 | 6 | 8 | DNF | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | DNS | 61 |
| School | Team | Sailors | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Grand Valley State University | Lakers | SkipperElliot Lee '18 CrewJoseph Kurta '20 CrewJared Smith '20 |
|
Hillsdale College | Chargers 1 | SkipperKaitlyn Rowland '21 CrewJulia Powell '21 CrewMichael Whitman '19 |
|
Hillsdale College | Chargers 2 | SkipperBen Dietderich '20 CrewOwen Macaulay '21 CrewPearce Pomerleau '19 |
|
Indiana University | Hoosiers | SkipperBenjamin Foster '18 CrewTaylor Lawrence '18 CrewReagan Roberson '20 ReserveJames Buchholz '20 |
|
Michigan State University | Spartans | SkipperRachel Rantanen '19 CrewChristian McAlvey '18 CrewBradley Grost '19 |
|
Northwestern University | Wildcats | SkipperSusan Riley '17 CrewIsabelle Laskero '20 CrewAlyssa Larios '19 |
|
University of Michigan | Wolverines 1 | SkipperJames Clarke '20 CrewGrant Glover '19 CrewRichard Gagnon '21 |
|
University of Michigan | Wolverines 2 | SkipperHannah Thayer '20 CrewClaire Foley '20 CrewJamie McClellan '21 [1-5] CrewSofia Gambini '19 [6-8] |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elliot Lee '18 | Grand Valley State University | 8/8 | 1.07 | 2.78 | +1.71 | 77th → 99th | 6.0 | 3% | 1.5 / 3.4 |
| 2 | Rachel Rantanen '19 | Michigan State University | 8/8 | 0.59 | 1.74 | +1.16 | 54th → 94th | 3.8 | 7% | 2.2 / 4.0 |
| 3 | Hannah Thayer '20 | University of Michigan Wolverines 2 | 8/8 | 0.25 | 0.95 | +0.70 | 36th → 72nd | 1.7 | 19% | 3.4 / 4.6 |
| 4 | James Clarke '20 | University of Michigan Wolverines 1 | 8/8 | 0.42u | 0.89 | +0.48 | 43rd → 70th | 0.9 | 32% | 3.6 / 4.3 |
| 5 | Susan Riley '17 | Northwestern University | 8/8 | 0.80 | -0.13 | −0.93 | 65th → 11th | 4.3 | 88% | 5.1 / 3.8 |
| 6 | Kaitlyn Rowland '21 | Hillsdale College Chargers 1 | 8/8 | -0.38 | -1.05 | −0.67 | 4th → 1st | 1.3 | 80% | 6.4 / 5.4 |
| 7 | Benjamin Foster '18 | Indiana University | 8/8 | -0.56 | -0.43 | +0.13 | 2nd → 3rd | 0.1 | 80% | 6.6 / 5.6 |
| 8 | Ben Dietderich '20 | Hillsdale College Chargers 2 | 8/8 | 0.00u | -1.35 | −1.35 | 17th → 1st | 4.6 | >99% | 7.6 / 4.9 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
