Navigate

Frosh-Soph — Analysis

← Results

* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W41). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,049 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.
  • u not rated by the model — the division median is used as the baseline.

Division A  25 boats · 6 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Andrew Dolle '29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 6/6 166* 203 +38 67th → 73rd 0.4 10% 3.3 / 6.1 169*
1 Carl Eskilstorp '27 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 6/6 132n* 202 +70 61st → 73rd 1.3 19% 3.3 / 7.7 132*
1 Rachael Tier '29 San Diego State University Aztecs 1 6/6 109* 205 +96 56th → 74th 2.4 4% 3.3 / 7.9 121*
4 Anna Stolyarova '29 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 6/6 77* 177 +99 49th → 68th 2.7 6% 4.2 / 9.0 92*
5 Xyler Yee '30 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 6/6 125n* 158 +33 59th → 65th 0.3 30% 4.7 / 8.0 125*
6 Alejandro Flores Mejia '29 San Diego State University Aztecs 2 6/6 35n* 19 -16 42nd → 38th 0.1 40% 9.2 / 11.1 35*
7 Happy Li '30 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 5/6 16n* 32 +16 38th → 41st 0.1 38% 9.2 / 11.5 16*
7 Judah Lion '30 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 1/6 -13n* -54 -41 32nd → 22nd 0.1 56% 14.0 / 12.9 -13*
8 Lily Trevisani '29 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 6/6 -29* -9 +20 27th → 32nd 0.1 39% 11.8 / 13.2 -27*
9 Robert Gibbs '30 Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 6/6 -42n* -35 +7 24th → 26th 0.0 41% 12.0 / 13.6 -42*
10 Nicole Spry '29 Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 6/6 -132* -112 +20 6th → 10th 0.1 12% 12.2 / 17.1 -133*
11 Colin Cheng '29 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 6/6 -42* -18 +23 24th → 31st 0.2 38% 12.3 / 13.8 -39*
12 Alexander Stellato '28 Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 6/6 -58* -24 +34 21st → 29th 0.4 37% 12.8 / 14.3 -50*
12 Isaac Frehywot '29 University of Southern California 6/6 -35n* -70 -35 26th → 18th 0.5 46% 12.8 / 13.4 -35*
14 Nikolas Krause '28 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 5/6 -10* -40 -30 32nd → 25th 0.3 59% 13.0 / 12.3 -19*
14 Eloise White '29 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1/6 -1* — — 35th → — 0.0 >99% 26.0 / 12.5 —*
15 Drew Gerlach '30 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 6/6 124n* 168 +44 59th → 67th 0.3 91% 15.3 / 8.1 124*
17 David Looby '28 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 6/6 -70n* -83 -13 18th → 15th 0.1 58% 15.8 / 14.5 -70*
18 Kiley Ku '29 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 5/6 -124* -139 -15 7th → 5th 0.1 55% 17.6 / 16.8 -125*
18 Zoe Horvath '29 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 1/6 -34n* -102 -68 26th → 12th 0.4 62% 16.0 / 13.5 -34*
19 Benjamin Paige '28 Arizona State University Sun Devils 4 6/6 -125* -125 -0 7th → 7th 0.0 58% 18.0 / 16.9 -125*
20 Tristan Meyer '27 University of California at Davis 5/6 -140* -47 +93 5th → 23rd 1.7 41% 16.6 / 17.4 -126*
20 Zachary Reese '28 University of California at Davis 1/6 -31u* — — 27th → — 0.0 >99% 26.0 / 13.5 —*
21 Finn Smith '30 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 6/6 -131n* -175 -44 6th → 2nd 0.7 68% 19.3 / 16.7 -131*
22 Austin Weske '27 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 6/6 -229n* -338 -109 1st → 1st 2.2 62% 21.8 / 19.7 -229*
23 Erika Fischer '28 California State University Channel Islands 6/6 -190* -210 -20 1st → 1st 0.1 86% 22.7 / 19.0 -191*
24 Selin Posacioglu '30 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 6/6 34n* 71 +38 41st → 48th 0.1 99% 23.0 / 11.1 34*
25 Kyra Polesky '29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 6/6 -31u* — — 27th → — 0.0 >99% 26.0 / 13.4 —*

Division B  25 boats · 6 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Henry Vare '30 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 6/6 194* 450 +256 71st → 99th 6.3 1% 1.2 / 4.4 215*
2 Kenyon Redler '29 San Diego State University Aztecs 2 6/6 42* 281 +239 43rd → 85th 10.1 1% 2.0 / 9.3 66*
3 Guthrie Goss '26 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 6/6 33* 176 +143 41st → 68th 4.9 4% 3.5 / 9.7 51*
4 Richard Kramer '27 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 6/6 -4* 77 +81 34th → 49th 1.9 13% 6.3 / 11.1 8*
5 Anjali Venugopalan '29 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 6/6 5* 39 +34 36th → 43rd 0.4 24% 7.5 / 10.7 11*
6 Rafe Ryan '29 University of Southern California 6/6 25n* 14 -11 39th → 37th 0.0 49% 9.5 / 10.3 25*
7 Leo Leckey '29 San Diego State University Aztecs 1 6/6 -68* 10 +78 19th → 37th 1.9 20% 9.8 / 13.7 -48*
8 Sam Yu '27 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 6/6 -3* -27 -24 34th → 28th 0.2 55% 11.3 / 11.1 -5*
9 Ulises Kuijken-Lewis '27 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 6/6 39n* 14 -24 43rd → 37th 0.2 67% 11.7 / 9.8 39*
9 Weston Otterson '29 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 6/6 -63* -36 +28 20th → 26th 0.3 35% 11.7 / 13.5 -58*
11 Zacharia Stover '28 Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 6/6 -48n* -52 -4 23rd → 22nd 0.0 44% 11.8 / 13.0 -48*
12 Basar Demirbas '30 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 3/6 -71n* -119 -48 18th → 8th 0.5 71% 17.0 / 13.4 -71*
12 Spencer Eldridge '28 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 3/6 2* 71 +69 35th → 48th 0.7 22% 7.0 / 11.1 8*
13 Tessa Steinke '29 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 6/6 -118* -75 +43 8th → 17th 0.6 26% 12.8 / 15.6 -110*
14 Isejah Hamdorf '30 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 6/6 -66n* -90 -24 19th → 13th 0.2 47% 13.0 / 13.5 -66*
15 Adrian Dubrow '30 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 6/6 11n* -20 -32 37th → 30th 0.3 71% 13.8 / 10.7 11*
15 Arnoldo Sanchez '27 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 3/6 -22n* -49 -27 29th → 23rd 0.1 83% 18.0 / 11.9 -22*
15 Ian Kim '29 University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 3/6 -64* 5 +69 20th → 36th 0.8 24% 9.7 / 13.4 -55*
17 Elliot Peterson-Lester '29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 6/6 -70n* -93 -23 18th → 13th 0.2 63% 15.2 / 13.4 -70*
18 Minghao Wang '29 University of California at Davis 6/6 -142* -125 +17 4th → 7th 0.1 42% 16.0 / 16.5 -135*
19 David Shaikh '30 California State University Channel Islands 6/6 -122n* -149 -27 8th → 3rd 0.3 64% 18.0 / 15.5 -122*
20 Owen Kearns '29 Arizona State University Sun Devils 4 6/6 -149n* -195 -45 3rd → 1st 0.7 71% 19.8 / 16.5 -149*
21 Tristyn Abbott '29 Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 6/6 -147n* -181 -33 4th → 2nd 0.4 72% 20.0 / 16.4 -147*
22 Stav Aroeti '28 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 6/6 -70n* -134 -64 18th → 6th 0.8 89% 20.3 / 13.6 -70*
23 Axel Watson '30 Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 6/6 -201n* -286 -84 1st → 1st 1.8 73% 21.7 / 18.1 -201*
24 Martina Mirabal '30 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 6/6 -139n* -208 -69 5th → 1st 1.3 90% 22.5 / 16.0 -139*
25 Claire Willoughby '29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 6/6 -187n* -363 -176 1st → 1st 3.6 >99% 25.0 / 17.8 -187*