Columbia University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.09 (fleet -0.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–5 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 7–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 7–5 against 8.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-05 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.04 | -0.67 | 7–5 | 8.5 | −0.71 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Kings Point Open Invite | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.0 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| The Grant | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.2 | -0.53 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ava Rotondo |  Bishop O'Connell High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ava Rotondo |  Georgetown Day School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ava Rotondo |  Yorktown |
'20 |
| ISSA | Ava Rotondo |  Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
