| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Key School | Zags | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Edmund Burke School | Varsity 1 | 5–5 |
| 4 | |
Edmund Burke School | Varsity 2 | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Unregistered-MASSA | Griffins | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Oakcrest | Bengals | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
Gunston | Herons | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,348 team race matches sailed before 2015-09-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 0 of 2 matches (0%) with a log-loss of 0.766 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Edmund Burke School Varsity 1 | 2 | 2.63 | Ryan Hennesy / Talia Frank Will Delong / Gabriel Cropsey No Show | 46% | 2–0 (100%) | +1.1 |
| 4 | Edmund Burke School Varsity 2 | 1 | 2.81 | Tye Rubin / River Carson Marley Hillman / Gabriel Cropsey Genevieve Dickinson / Talia Frank | 54% | 0–2 (0%) | −1.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Edmund Burke School Varsity 1 | 2.63 | 5.63 | 2–0 | 0.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 22% |
| 4 | Edmund Burke School Varsity 2 | 2.81 | -0.19 | 0–2 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | Edmund Burke School Varsity 1 | Edmund Burke School Varsity 2 | 46% | upset |
| 4 | 33 | Edmund Burke School Varsity 1 | Edmund Burke School Varsity 2 | 46% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Griffins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 3 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Herons | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 6 | |
Varsity 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Griffins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Herons | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 11 | |
Bengals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Herons | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bengals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 14 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 17 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Griffins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Herons | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Bengals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Herons | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Herons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 24 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Herons | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 28 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Admirals | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Edmund Burke School | Varsity 1 | No Show Ryan Hennesy '17 Will Delong '17 |
Talia Frank '17 Gabriel Cropsey '17 |
|
Edmund Burke School | Varsity 2 | Genevieve Dickinson '17 Marley Hillman '17 Tye Rubin '17 |
Talia Frank '17 Gabriel Cropsey '17 River Carson '17 |
|
Unregistered-MASSA | Griffins | Accidental Gybe '15 Forgot Bailer '15 |
Mountain Lakes '16 Tiller Extension '15 |
|
Oakcrest | Bengals | Maggie Ryland '17 Victoria Marquez '16 |
Anna Cipollone '17 Jill Collins '17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
