| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Blue | 7–2 |
| 3 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | White (Mixed) | 5–4 |
| 4 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | 4–5 |
| 5 |  |
Toledo Technology Academy | Mixed | 2–4 |
| 6 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | MIXED Green | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | MIXED Blue | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,822 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 27 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.487 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.51 ± 0.44: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 3.71 | 6.66 | 8–1 | 5.2 | +2.95 | 4.2 | 2% |
| 5 | Toledo Technology Academy Mixed | 0.46 | 1.74 | 2–4 | 1.2 | +1.28 | 0.6 | 34% |
| 2 | Cranbrook Kingswood Blue | 4.11 | 5.22 | 7–2 | 5.8 | +1.12 | 0.7 | 29% |
| 4 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 3.19 | 2.86 | 4–5 | 4.4 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 6 | West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green | 0.98 | -0.31 | 1–5 | 1.7 | −1.28 | 0.5 | 93% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) | 5.56 | 3.11 | 5–4 | 7.8 | −2.44 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 7 | Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue | -0.04 | -3.04 | 0–6 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Schaupeter | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.00 | 3.95 | 8–1 | 5.2 | +2.95 | 4.2 | 2% |
| Cordelia Vanderveer | Toledo Technology Academy | -0.35 | 1.34 | 1–2 | 0.5 | +1.69 | 0.6 | 41% |
| Mike Reynolds | Toledo Technology Academy | 0.38 | 1.66 | 2–4 | 1.2 | +1.28 | 0.6 | 34% |
| Adrian Stone | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.96 | 2.07 | 7–2 | 5.8 | +1.12 | 0.7 | 29% |
| Henry Gonzalez | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.75 | 2.87 | 7–2 | 5.8 | +1.12 | 0.7 | 29% |
| Charlie Gonzalez | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.34 | 2.45 | 7–2 | 5.8 | +1.12 | 0.7 | 29% |
| Anna Carron | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.27 | 0.94 | 4–5 | 4.4 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Christina Thomas | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.00 | 0.67 | 4–5 | 4.4 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Ellie Groustra | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.82 | 0.48 | 4–5 | 4.4 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Frank Bachulis | West Bloomfield High School | -0.30 | -1.59 | 1–5 | 1.7 | −1.28 | 0.5 | 93% |
| Braden Vogel | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.80 | -0.65 | 5–4 | 7.8 | −2.44 | 4.2 | >99% |
| Kaya Donat | Detroit Country Day School | 0.08 | -2.92 | 0–6 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MIXED Green | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Blue | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
MIXED Green | 2-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MIXED Green | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Gold | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Blue | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Blue | 1-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 2-5-6 DNF |
| 14 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Gold | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Green | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Gold | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
White (Mixed) | 1-2-5 | def. | |
MIXED Green | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Blue | 1-3-6 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MIXED Green | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
White (Mixed) | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
White (Mixed) | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gold | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Blue | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Blue | 2-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
