| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Green | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Ingraham High School | Rams | 5–1 |
| 3 | |
Roosevelt High School | Gold | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 2–4 |
| 5 |  |
Ballard High School | Beavers | 2–4 |
| 6 |  |
Nathan Hale High School | Raiders | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences | Cardinals | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,871 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 21 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.442 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.43 ± 0.53: a typical event, more orderly than 73% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosevelt High School Green | 3.08 | 6.08 | 6–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 3.6 | 6% |
| 2 | Ingraham High School Rams | 3.73 | 4.34 | 5–1 | 4.6 | +0.61 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 3 | Roosevelt High School Gold | 3.11 | 3.23 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 4 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | 1.60 | 1.42 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 7 | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals | 0.84 | 0.17 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 6 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 0.94 | 0.18 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 5 | Ballard High School Beavers | 2.76 | 1.20 | 2–4 | 3.5 | −1.56 | 1.3 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Kuhtz | Roosevelt High School | 0.38 | 3.38 | 6–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 3.6 | 6% |
| Sam Whitener | Nathan Hale High School | 0.54 | 1.28 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.74 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Aragorn Crozier | Ingraham High School | 0.87 | 1.47 | 5–1 | 4.6 | +0.61 | 0.1 | 56% |
| David Lu | Roosevelt High School | 1.01 | 1.13 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Alden Mcgonagle | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences | 0.83 | 0.16 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Willem Patrick | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences | -0.69 | -1.36 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Advik Eswaran | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences | 0.76 | 0.09 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Caroline Lochner | Ballard High School | 1.04 | -0.52 | 2–4 | 3.5 | −1.56 | 1.3 | 97% |
| Felix Cain | Ballard High School | 0.34 | -1.22 | 2–4 | 3.5 | −1.56 | 1.3 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals | 49% | upset | |
| 2 | Ingraham High School Rams | Ballard High School Beavers | 67% | ||
| 3 | Roosevelt High School Gold | Garfield High School Bulldogs | 77% | ||
| 4 | Roosevelt High School Green | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 86% | ||
| 5 | Ingraham High School Rams | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals | 90% | ||
| 6 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | Ballard High School Beavers | 29% | upset | |
| 7 | Roosevelt High School Green | Roosevelt High School Gold | 50% | ||
| 8 | Ingraham High School Rams | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 91% | ||
| 9 | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals | Garfield High School Bulldogs | 36% | upset | |
| 10 | Roosevelt High School Gold | Ballard High School Beavers | 57% | ||
| 11 | Roosevelt High School Green | Ingraham High School Rams | 37% | upset | |
| 12 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 59% | ||
| 13 | Roosevelt High School Gold | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals | 85% | ||
| 14 | Roosevelt High School Green | Ballard High School Beavers | 56% | ||
| 15 | Ingraham High School Rams | Garfield High School Bulldogs | 84% | ||
| 16 | Roosevelt High School Gold | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 82% | ||
| 17 | Ballard High School Beavers | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals | 82% | ||
| 18 | Roosevelt High School Green | Garfield High School Bulldogs | 74% | ||
| 19 | Ingraham High School Rams | Roosevelt High School Gold | 62% | ||
| 20 | Ballard High School Beavers | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 78% | ||
| 21 | Roosevelt High School Green | Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals | 84% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Gold | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-3-6 |
| 7 | |
Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Gold | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Gold | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Gold | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Gold | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Beavers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Green | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-5-6 DNF |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
