| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders 2 | 2–1 |
| 3 | |
Poquoson High School | Islanders 1 | 1–1 |
| 4 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 1–2 |
| 5 |  |
Walsingham Academy | Trojans | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,791 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 0 of 1 matches (0%) with a log-loss of 0.733 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | 2 | -0.23 school +0.19 | Ashlyn Wise / Emory Hill Matthew Stout / Tiernan Boyd Grace Waltinton / Aubrey Walton | 48% | 1–0 (100%) | +0.5 |
| 5 | Walsingham Academy Trojans | 1 | -0.13 school +0.12 | Katherine Anna Hamner / Liam Chen 0.25 Riley Kelley / Ian Baker -0.29 Mike Laccheo / Jack Pflika -0.21 | 52% | 0–1 (0%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | -0.23 | 2.77 | 1–0 | 0.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 48% |
| 5 | Walsingham Academy Trojans | -0.13 | -3.13 | 0–1 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | Walsingham Academy Trojans | 48% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Islanders 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Navigators | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders 2 | Ashlyn Wise '21 Grace Waltinton '22 Matthew Stout '23 |
Emory Hill '23 Aubrey Walton '23 Tiernan Boyd '23 |
|
Walsingham Academy | Trojans | Katherine Anna Hamner '22 Mike Laccheo '23 Riley Kelley '20 |
Liam Chen '20 Jack Pflika '22 Ian Baker '22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
