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Keelboat Kickoff

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 1 6 8 14
2 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 9 35 44
3 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 18 29 47
4 Newton North High School Newton North High School Tigers 26 26 52
5 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 33 26 59
6 Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Falcons 45 22 67
7 Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 1 31 39 70
8 Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 40 MRP 30 MRP 70 MRP
9 Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 1 31 44 75
10 Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 2 49 39 88
11 Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 2 33 56 89
12 Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 2 43 52 95
13 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Needham HS 49 54 103
14 Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 2 69 MRP 50 119 MRP
15 Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 2 67 MRP 52 MRP 119 MRP
16 Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 1 89 MRP 35 124 MRP
17 Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 1 65 61 126
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 1 3 1 1 1 6
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 2 2 3 2 9
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 6 3 5 4 18
Newton North High School Newton North High School Tigers 1 5 2 DNF 26
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 1 4 8 12 7 31
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 1 9 10 9 3 31
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 2 7 7 13 6 33
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 11 4 7 11 33
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 5 6 4 5 40 MRP
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 2 16 13 6 8 43
Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Falcons 13 12 10 10 45
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 2 8 15 8 DSQ 49
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Needham HS 15 14 11 9 49
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 1 14 17 16 DNF 65
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 2 12 9 14 12 67 MRP
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 2 10 11 15 13 69 MRP
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 1 17 16 DNF DNS 89 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 1 3 2 2 1 8
Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Falcons 2 1 1 DSQ 22
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 7 7 4 8 26
Newton North High School Newton North High School Tigers 10 5 5 6 26
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 5 6 7 11 29
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 1 3 3 3 30 MRP
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 1 8 14 8 5 35
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raiders 16 11 6 2 35
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 2 6 8 12 13 39
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 1 11 10 11 7 39
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 1 4 4 DNS DNS 44
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 2 13 13 14 10 50
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 2 9 9 10 4 52 MRP
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 2 14 17 9 12 52
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Needham HS 17 15 13 9 54
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 2 12 12 DNS 14 56
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 1 15 16 15 15 61
School Team Sailors
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Div A Wolfpack SkipperNoah Sargent '22
CrewSam Lowery '18
CrewNo show
CrewMaia McGonagle '22
Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Div A Falcons SkipperRobie Scola '23
CrewJanka Borcsok '23
CrewSylvia Fresco '23
Hingham High School Hingham High School Div A Harbormen 1 SkipperCasey Teahan '28 [1-2]
SkipperJessica Scipione '27 [3-4]
CrewSara Menesale '24 [1-2]
CrewSam Bennion '22 [1-4]
Hingham High School Hingham High School Div A Harbormen 2 SkipperNo show
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Div A Warriors 1 SkipperSarah Alix '19 [1-2]
SkipperMathew Buoniconti '20 [3-4]
CrewGabby Jones '20 [1-2]
CrewMasha Filatov '18 [3-4]
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Div A Warriors 2 SkipperAbby Hayes '20 [1-2]
SkipperJenny Lawton '20 [3-4]
CrewLars Hjerpe '19 [1-2]
CrewLauren Messina '19 [3-4]
Natick High School Natick High School Div A Redhawks 1 SkipperLiz Lewis '18
CrewTommy Conrad '18
CrewOwen Clifford '22
Natick High School Natick High School Div A Redhawks 2 SkipperDevon Hartigan '19
CrewVictoria Conrad '22
CrewVicky Conrad '21
Newton North High School Newton North High School Div A Tigers SkipperNolan Cooper '20
CrewCharlie Logman '21
CrewConall McA'Nulty '17
Sharon High School Sharon High School Div A Eagles 1 SkipperColin Snow '18
CrewAlissa Chen '18
CrewJason Yang '20
Sharon High School Sharon High School Div A Eagles 2 SkipperKevin Li '18
CrewEddie Bielawa '20
CrewRyan Cloherty '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Div A Needham HS SkipperNo show
Wayland High School Wayland High School Div A Warriors 1 SkipperVincent Pak '17
CrewLucy Poole '18
CrewMarlee Griffin '18
Wayland High School Wayland High School Div A Warriors 2 SkipperKeenan Schilp '22
CrewGrace Karbowski '19
CrewMack Kiesman '19
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Div A Raiders SkipperChase Ireland '18
CrewCatherine Zhu '18 [1-2]
CrewZane Salameh '18
CrewVeronica Smith '20 [3-4]
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div A Sachems 1 SkipperMichael Yorsz '20
CrewRosie Crawford '20
CrewAbby Stewart '22
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div A Sachems 2 SkipperLukas Hoertdoerfer '20
CrewOlivia Wiatrowski '20 [1-2]
CrewLucas Cafferky '20
CrewSara Morrison '20 [3-4]
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Div B Wolfpack SkipperMeghan McGonagle '22
CrewDaniel Bryan '22
CrewNathaniel O'Brien '19
CrewLucas Caron '20
Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Div B Falcons SkipperThomas Craciun '23
CrewAnna Rasmussen '23
CrewJulia Rasmussen '23
Hingham High School Hingham High School Div B Harbormen 1 SkipperEthan Burt '22 [1-3]
SkipperSara Menesale '24 [4]
CrewCarter Driggs '28 [1-2]
CrewSam Bennion '22
CrewEllie Smith '24 [3-4]
Hingham High School Hingham High School Div B Harbormen 2 SkipperNo show
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Div B Warriors 1 SkipperBlake Danzigeer '18
CrewJenny Lawton '20
ReserveAlex Floru '17
ReserveDaniel Guzi '19
ReserveRyan Heindel '19
ReserveLauren Messina '19
ReserveKrishna Ramani '20
ReserveJulia Ting '20
Lincoln Sudbury RHS Lincoln Sudbury RHS Div B Warriors 2 SkipperPatrick Mcnulty '19
CrewSloane Wendel '21
ReserveGabby Jones '20
ReserveSeamus Mcnulty '20
ReserveSean Wu '21
Natick High School Natick High School Div B Redhawks 1 SkipperKatie Blinn '19
CrewAnna McEnaney '22
CrewLilian Briggs '19
ReserveVicky Conrad '21
ReserveVictoria Conrad '22
ReserveDevon Hartigan '19
Natick High School Natick High School Div B Redhawks 2 SkipperMaeve Clifford '19 [1-2]
SkipperConnor Spurling '19 [3-4]
CrewMelina Troccolo '19
ReserveOwen Clifford '22
ReserveTommy Conrad '18
ReserveLiz Lewis '18
Newton North High School Newton North High School Div B Tigers SkipperGus Betts-O'Rourke '19
CrewEthan Gahm '19
CrewCharlotte Harrison '19
Sharon High School Sharon High School Div B Eagles 1 SkipperArthur Rabinovich '18
CrewJohan Cho '21
CrewLynn Fu '18
ReserveRyan Cloherty '18
Sharon High School Sharon High School Div B Eagles 2 SkipperChava (Roni) Sosis '18
CrewMerrick Tian '18
CrewSam Edson '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Div B Needham HS SkipperNo show
Wayland High School Wayland High School Div B Warriors 1 SkipperJacob Schilp '22
CrewDylan Rader '18
CrewJayden Sun '19
CrewJoel Puckett '21
Wayland High School Wayland High School Div B Warriors 2 SkipperConnor Rader '22
CrewWil Obar '22
CrewWalker Whitehouse '22
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Div B Raiders SkipperEric Thompson '20 [1-2]
SkipperHailey Feinzig '18 [3-4]
CrewThomas Gartley '18 [1-2]
CrewEmily Lo '20 [3-4]
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div B Sachems 1 SkipperJames Kiley '20
CrewCiara Campbell '20
CrewScott Ferreira '20
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div B Sachems 2 SkipperIsabel Croteau '20
CrewMia Matteucci '20
CrewMichael Yorsz '20

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 78 ISSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  17 boats · 4 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Michael Yorsz '20Winchester High School Sachems 14/40.843.79+2.9567th → 99th8.4<1%1.5 / 7.7
2Chase Ireland '18Wellesley High School4/40.492.86+2.3737th → 99th7.01%2.2 / 8.7
3Colin Snow '18Sharon High School Eagles 14/40.721.68+0.9655th → 99th1.714%4.5 / 8.1
4Noah Sargent '22Boston Latin School4/40.711.52+0.8155th → 92nd1.319%5.0 / 8.0
5Nolan Cooper '20Newton North High School4/40.962.52+1.5673rd → 99th2.743%6.5 / 7.4
6Vincent Pak '17Wayland High School Warriors 14/40.080.85+0.779th → 68th1.226%7.8 / 10.1
6Casey Teahan '28Hingham High School Harbormen 12/40.321.30+0.9823rd → 91st0.924%6.0 / 9.2
6Jessica Scipione '27Hingham High School Harbormen 12/40.420.37−0.0533rd → 29th0.057%9.5 / 9.1
8Kevin Li '18Sharon High School Eagles 24/40.620.52−0.1051st → 38th0.051%8.2 / 8.5
8Lukas Hoertdoerfer '20Winchester High School Sachems 24/40.420.63+0.2233rd → 51st0.143%8.2 / 9.0
10Devon Hartigan '19Natick High School Redhawks 24/4-0.280.02+0.301st → 6th0.246%10.8 / 11.0
11Robie Scola '23Cambridge R&L School4/40.66u0.08−0.5851st → 9th1.083%11.2 / 8.3
13Keenan Schilp '22Wayland High School Warriors 24/40.450.16−0.2935th → 12th0.287%12.2 / 8.8
13Abby Hayes '20Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 22/4-0.160.43+0.581st → 33rd0.450%10.5 / 10.6
13Jenny Lawton '20Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 22/40.17-1.45−1.6212th → 1st2.885%14.0 / 9.9
16Liz Lewis '18Natick High School Redhawks 14/4-0.12-1.85−1.731st → 1st3.599%16.2 / 10.5
17Mathew Buoniconti '20Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 12/40.67u——53rd → —0.0>99%18.0 / 8.5
17Sarah Alix '19Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 12/4-0.11-1.71−1.611st → 1st2.798%16.5 / 10.6

Division B  17 boats · 4 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1James Kiley '20Winchester High School Sachems 14/40.722.84+2.1255th → 99th5.52%2.0 / 7.1
2Meghan McGonagle '22Boston Latin School4/4-0.042.44+2.484th → 99th7.71%2.5 / 9.5
3Thomas Craciun '23Cambridge R&L School4/40.424.01+3.5933rd → 99th8.022%5.5 / 8.1
4Chava (Roni) Sosis '18Sharon High School Eagles 24/40.530.92+0.3940th → 72nd0.337%6.5 / 7.8
4Gus Betts-O'Rourke '19Newton North High School4/4-0.640.94+1.581st → 73rd4.27%6.5 / 11.3
6Arthur Rabinovich '18Sharon High School Eagles 14/40.910.61−0.3071st → 51st0.263%7.2 / 6.7
8Blake Danzigeer '18Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 14/4-0.070.28+0.363rd → 19th0.340%8.8 / 9.6
8Eric Thompson '20Wellesley High School Raiders2/4-0.11-0.65−0.541st → 1st0.484%13.5 / 9.6
8Hailey Feinzig '18Wellesley High School Raiders2/40.321.55+1.2324th → 92nd1.314%4.0 / 8.6
10Connor Rader '22Wayland High School Warriors 24/40.360.04−0.3129th → 8th0.372%9.8 / 8.2
10Ethan Burt '22Hingham High School Harbormen 13/40.290.02−0.2719th → 6th0.276%10.7 / 8.4
10Sara Menesale '24Hingham High School Harbormen 11/40.850.79−0.0668th → 63rd0.056%7.0 / 7.2
12Jacob Schilp '22Wayland High School Warriors 14/4-0.101.76+1.861st → 99th2.667%11.0 / 9.6
13Patrick Mcnulty '19Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors 24/4-0.43-0.42+0.011st → 1st0.071%12.5 / 10.7
14Connor Spurling '19Natick High School Redhawks 22/4-0.400.09+0.491st → 10th0.350%10.5 / 10.6
14Maeve Clifford '19Natick High School Redhawks 22/4-0.89-1.66−0.771st → 1st0.586%15.5 / 11.8
16Isabel Croteau '20Winchester High School Sachems 24/40.70-0.55−1.2555th → 1st3.999%14.0 / 7.2
17Katie Blinn '19Natick High School Redhawks 14/4-0.43-1.76−1.331st → 1st3.395%15.2 / 10.7

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →