| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Summit High School | Hilltoppers | 2–0 |
| 2 |  |
Chatham High School | Cougars | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,350 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 2 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.117 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Summit High School Hilltoppers | 1 | 2.75 school −0.15 | Thomas Quinn / Kelsey Kennedy 1.63 Mack Totman / Ben Sampson 0.68 Sophie Lusty / Liz Colao | 89% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.2 |
| 2 | Chatham High School Cougars | 2 | 0.07 | Luke Duplessis / Zoe Papier Paul Danenberg / Ryan Mayes Thomas Marino / James Mccarron | 11% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Summit High School | 2.75 | 5.75 | 2–0 | 1.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 79% |
| 2 | Chatham High School | 0.07 | -2.93 | 0–2 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Summit High School | Chatham High School | 89% | |
| 2 | 2 | Summit High School | Chatham High School | 89% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hilltoppers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Hilltoppers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Summit High School | Hilltoppers | Mack Totman '19 Sophie Lusty '20 Thomas Quinn '18 |
Ben Sampson '20 Liz Colao '19 Kelsey Kennedy '18 |
|
Chatham High School | Cougars | Luke Duplessis '20 Paul Danenberg '19 Thomas Marino '21 |
Zoe Papier '19 Ryan Mayes '19 James Mccarron '18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
