| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | 3–0 |
| 2 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 1–2 |
| 4 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | CK Mixed | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,425 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.604 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 1 | 4.74 school −0.08 | Anna Carron / Gwen Hudson 1.37 Dominic Dulac / Ellie Groustra 1.86 Dougie Cowan / Ryan Hexter 1.58 | 68% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.6 |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 3 | 3.33 school −0.08 | Julia Hudson / Aidan King 0.97 Christina Thomas / Matt Schulte 0.81 Billy Vogel / Lucas Bellamy 1.63 | 30% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.4 |
| 3 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 2 | 4.11 | Isabel Dziuba / Walter Paliga 1.18 Nicole Millerman / Jake Elsen 1.17 Matthew Elliott / Anthony Dziuba 1.79 | 52% | 0–2 (0%) | −1.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 4.74 | 7.74 | 2–0 | 1.4 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 3.33 | 4.43 | 1–1 | 0.6 | +1.10 | 0.3 | 51% |
| 3 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 4.11 | 1.11 | 0–2 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 62% | |
| 1 | 4 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 35% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 75% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Gold | 1-3-5 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
CK Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | Anna Carron '21 Dominic Dulac '20 Dougie Cowan '22 |
Gwen Hudson '20 Ellie Groustra '22 Ryan Hexter '21 |
|
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | Billy Vogel '21 Christina Thomas '21 Julia Hudson '20 |
Lucas Bellamy '20 Matt Schulte '20 Aidan King '21 |
|
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | Isabel Dziuba '19 Matthew Elliott '20 Nicole Millerman '19 |
Walter Paliga '22 Anthony Dziuba '21 Jake Elsen '21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
