| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 3–3 |
| 2 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 3–3 |
| 3 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 3–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,887 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 9 matches (56%) with a log-loss of 0.884 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York High School Varsity | 2 | 2.02 school −0.05 | Brian Fox / Charlie Gibson 1.26 Justin Kelly / Elias Rooker David Hanna / Lenore Dougherty 0.30 | 54% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.2 |
| 2 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 1 | 2.96 school −0.27 | Cole Handly / Peyton Crum 1.35 Megan Geith / Charlotte Pirnik 0.81 Tyler Brown / Maggie Leddy 0.97 | 77% | 3–3 (50%) | −1.6 |
| 3 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 3 | 0.60 school +0.22 | Chase Brewer / Aubrey Walton 0.30 Tori Dixon / Maggie Leddy -0.14 Ethan White / Luke Manternach 0.03 | 19% | 3–3 (50%) | +1.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Poquoson High School | 0.60 | 2.50 | 3–3 | 1.1 | +1.91 | 2.1 | 9% |
| 1 | York High School | 2.02 | 1.79 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.23 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2 | Kecoughtan High School | 2.96 | 1.28 | 3–3 | 4.6 | −1.68 | 1.6 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Kelly | York High School | 0.42 | 0.19 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.23 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Cole Handly | Kecoughtan High School | 1.35 | -0.33 | 3–3 | 4.6 | −1.68 | 1.6 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | York High School | Kecoughtan High School | 33% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Kecoughtan High School | Poquoson High School | 87% | |
| 1 | 3 | York High School | Poquoson High School | 76% | |
| 2 | 4 | Kecoughtan High School | York High School | 68% | |
| 2 | 5 | Poquoson High School | Kecoughtan High School | 13% | upset |
| 2 | 6 | York High School | Poquoson High School | 75% | |
| 3 | 7 | Kecoughtan High School | York High School | 68% | |
| 3 | 8 | Poquoson High School | Kecoughtan High School | 14% | upset |
| 3 | 9 | Poquoson High School | York High School | 26% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Warriors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Islanders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Warriors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Islanders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Islanders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
York High School | Varsity | Brian Fox '19 David Hanna '21 Justin Kelly '25 |
Charlie Gibson '20 Lenore Dougherty '20 Elias Rooker '23 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Cole Handly '19 Megan Geith '20 Tyler Brown '22 |
Peyton Crum '23 Charlotte Pirnik '20 Maggie Leddy '20 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders | Chase Brewer '22 Ethan White '21 Tori Dixon '20 |
Aubrey Walton '23 Luke Manternach '22 Maggie Leddy '20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
