| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mater Dei High School | MONARCHS | 17–1 |
| 2 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 12–6 |
| 3 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | 7–11 |
| 4 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 5–13 |
| 5 |  |
Santa Barbara High School | Dons | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,226 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 42 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.462 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.42 ± 0.37: an orderly event, more orderly than 72% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mater Dei High School MONARCHS | 1 | 9.42 school −0.38 | Morgan Pinckney / Vera Allen 3.43 Reade Decker / Sophia Mulvania 3.44 Chase Decker / Ashtyn Tierney 2.77 | 79% | 17–1 (94%) | +2.8 |
| 2 | Point Loma High School Pointers | 2 | 8.64 school +0.13 | Peter Busch / Preston Miller 2.71 Ian Nyenhuis / Jonah Wozniak Harrison Strom / Samantha Gardner | 64% | 12–6 (67%) | +0.5 |
| 3 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings | 4 | 7.21 school −0.13 | Tyler Wood / Ashley Highland 2.67 Dylan Sih / Sophia Pearce 2.65 Piper Blackband / Taylor Bartell | 33% | 7–11 (39%) | +1.0 |
| 4 | Newport Harbor High School Sailors | 5 | 7.08 school +0.23 | Ethan Simpson / Dillion Garcia 2.84 Jack Roman / Alegra Morelli 2.15 Conrad Cook / Elsa Wiley | 30% | 5–13 (28%) | −0.4 |
| 5 | Santa Barbara High School Dons | 3 | 7.50 school −0.21 | Ryan Satterberg / Crue Ziskind 2.92 Jonathon Seawards / Sam Long 2.31 Liam Andresen / Magne Henriques 2.35 | 41% | 1–11 (8%) | −3.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mater Dei High School | 9.42 | 11.42 | 17–1 | 14.2 | +2.00 | 2.6 | 8% |
| 3 | Corona del Mar High School | 7.21 | 7.57 | 7–11 | 6.0 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 38% |
| 2 | Point Loma High School | 8.64 | 8.82 | 12–6 | 11.5 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 4 | Newport Harbor High School | 7.08 | 6.92 | 5–13 | 5.4 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 5 | Santa Barbara High School | 7.50 | 4.69 | 1–11 | 4.9 | −2.80 | 5.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathon Seawards | Santa Barbara High School | 2.31 | -0.49 | 1–11 | 4.9 | −2.80 | 5.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Sea Kings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dons | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
MONARCHS | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dons | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
MONARCHS | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dons | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Sea Kings | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
MONARCHS | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Pointers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dons | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Sailors | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dons | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Pointers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dons | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Pointers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Dons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dons | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
MONARCHS | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dons | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mater Dei High School | MONARCHS | Chase Decker '24 Morgan Pinckney '23 Reade Decker '23 |
Ashtyn Tierney '24 Vera Allen '23 Sophia Mulvania '22 |
|
Point Loma High School | Pointers | Harrison Strom '24 Ian Nyenhuis '25 Peter Busch '22 |
Samantha Gardner '23 Jonah Wozniak '25 Preston Miller '24 |
|
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | Dylan Sih '24 Piper Blackband '24 Tyler Wood '22 |
Sophia Pearce '22 Taylor Bartell '24 Ashley Highland '23 |
|
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | Conrad Cook '25 Ethan Simpson '23 Jack Roman '22 |
Elsa Wiley '23 Dillion Garcia '23 Alegra Morelli '23 |
|
Santa Barbara High School | Dons | Jonathon Seawards '22 Liam Andresen '22 Ryan Satterberg '22 |
Sam Long '23 Magne Henriques '24 Crue Ziskind '25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
