| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Troy High School | Troy | 3–1 |
| 4 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Birmingham Public Schools | Varsity | 1–3 |
| 6 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Blue | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,392 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 12 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.585 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.46 ± 0.70: a typical event, more orderly than 18% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 4.53 | 7.53 | 4–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| 3 | Troy High School | 1.79 | 4.28 | 3–1 | 1.4 | +2.49 | 2.1 | 11% |
| 2 | West Bloomfield High School | 4.04 | 4.46 | 3–1 | 2.8 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 65% |
| 4 | Detroit Country Day School | 1.46 | 1.37 | 1–3 | 1.0 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 5 | Birmingham Public Schools | 1.88 | 1.07 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −0.81 | 0.2 | 87% |
| 6 | Cranbrook Kingswood | 3.32 | 0.32 | 0–4 | 2.2 | ≤−3.00 | 4.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarush Kapur | Detroit Country Day School | 0.31 | 0.22 | 1–3 | 1.0 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Michael Mullins | Birmingham Public Schools | 1.42 | 0.60 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −0.81 | 0.2 | 87% |
| Charlie Gonzalez | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.77 | -1.23 | 0–4 | 2.2 | ≤−3.00 | 4.5 | >99% |
| Aaron Wang | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–4 | 2.2 | ≤−3.00 | 4.5 | >99% |
| Walter Miller | Cranbrook Kingswood | 0.61 | -2.39 | 0–4 | 2.2 | ≤−3.00 | 4.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Troy High School | Cranbrook Kingswood | 24% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Detroit Country Day School | Birmingham Public Schools | 41% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School | West Bloomfield High School | 58% | |
| 1 | 4 | Troy High School | Birmingham Public Schools | 47% | upset |
| 1 | 5 | Grosse Pointe South High School | Cranbrook Kingswood | 72% | |
| 1 | 6 | West Bloomfield High School | Detroit Country Day School | 88% | |
| 1 | 7 | Grosse Pointe South High School | Birmingham Public Schools | 88% | |
| 1 | 8 | Troy High School | Detroit Country Day School | 56% | |
| 1 | 9 | West Bloomfield High School | Cranbrook Kingswood | 63% | |
| 1 | 10 | Grosse Pointe South High School | Detroit Country Day School | 92% | |
| 1 | 11 | Birmingham Public Schools | Cranbrook Kingswood | 21% | upset |
| 1 | 12 | West Bloomfield High School | Troy High School | 85% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Troy | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Troy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Troy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Blue | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Troy | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | Eric Brieden '24 Gavin Webster '24 Jack Riley '26 |
Charlie Gmeiner '23 Colin Hexter '23 Peter Horst '26 |
|
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | Brent Armstrong '25 Jack Armstrong '25 Liam Gilin '25 Vinny Paliga '24 |
Alex Wszolek '25 Ian Phipps '25 Jack Armstrong '25 Nahil Edrisinha '26 |
|
Troy High School | Troy | Dane Greenwood '23 Jacob Ritter '24 Rodrigo Flores '24 |
Sophia Worden '23 Bella Satterfield '24 Clara Le Moal '24 |
|
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | Aarush Kapur '25 Liam Hounsell '23 Miles Laker '23 |
Miles Kohn '25 Andrew Wiand '25 Ashwin Kesliker '26 |
|
Birmingham Public Schools | Varsity | Eric Ellison '24 Marko Nedeljkovic '24 Michael Mullins '23 Sean Ellison '25 |
Marko Nedeljkovic '24 Micah Abney '26 Nate Bacheller '24 Eric Ellison '24 |
|
Cranbrook Kingswood | Blue | Aaron Wang '25 Charlie Gonzalez '23 Walter Miller '23 |
Gunnar Dudlar '23 Jack Harman '23 Garrett Dudlar '25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
