| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Clear Lake High School | Falcons | 4–6 |
| 4 |  |
Saint Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 1–7 |
| 5 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,731 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 23 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.350 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.45: a typical event, more orderly than 66% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School Knights | 2 | 4.76 school +0.20 | Ewan Dossin / Ben Vickers 1.66 Korbin Bendele / Derek Perdue 1.53 Polsen Blake / Kale Bendele 1.12 | 69% | 10–0 (100%) | +3.1 |
| 2 | Lake Travis High School Cavaliers | 1 | 5.64 school +0.28 | James Brock / Lilly Wind 2.68 Wyatt Tauber / Laura Covington 1.75 Ryder Getson / Zachary Romberg 0.83 | 84% | 7–3 (70%) | −1.4 |
| 3 | Clear Lake High School Falcons | 3 | 3.15 school +0.06 | Cole Gourley / James Gonzalez 1.05 Jack Cronan / Julia Carlsen 1.55 Andrew Hibbetts / Gabrielle Golemi | 38% | 4–6 (40%) | +0.2 |
| 4 | Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 5 | 1.81 school +0.21 | Aidan Castle / Lane Burroughs 0.93 Ruston Breisacher / Michael Dawley 0.39 Landon Newton / Kade Johnston 0.15 | 21% | 1–7 (12%) | −0.7 |
| 5 | Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays | 4 | 2.33 | Aidan Mckoin / Matthew Brown 0.88 Connor Fanberg / Harrison Dietz 1.85 Vincent Welty / Dylan Davis | 28% | 1–7 (12%) | −1.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School | 4.76 | 7.76 | 10–0 | 6.9 | ≥+3.00 | 5.5 | 1% |
| 3 | Clear Lake High School | 3.15 | 3.31 | 4–6 | 3.8 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 4 | Saint Stanislaus | 1.81 | 0.94 | 1–7 | 1.7 | −0.87 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2 | Lake Travis High School | 5.64 | 4.49 | 7–3 | 8.4 | −1.15 | 0.9 | 95% |
| 5 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 2.33 | 0.76 | 1–7 | 2.3 | −1.57 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ewan Dossin | Clear Falls High School | 1.66 | 4.66 | 10–0 | 6.9 | ≥+3.00 | 5.5 | 1% |
| Polsen Blake | Clear Falls High School | 1.12 | 4.12 | 10–0 | 6.9 | ≥+3.00 | 5.5 | 1% |
| Andrew Hibbetts | Clear Lake High School | 0.20 | 0.36 | 4–6 | 3.8 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Aidan Castle | Saint Stanislaus | 0.93 | 0.06 | 1–7 | 1.7 | −0.87 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Ruston Breisacher | Saint Stanislaus | 0.39 | -0.48 | 1–7 | 1.7 | −0.87 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Landon Newton | Saint Stanislaus | 0.15 | -0.72 | 1–7 | 1.7 | −0.87 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Aidan Mckoin | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.88 | -0.69 | 1–7 | 2.3 | −1.57 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Connor Fanberg | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 1.85 | 0.28 | 1–7 | 2.3 | −1.57 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Vincent Welty | Jesuit High School, NOLA | -0.47 | -2.04 | 1–7 | 2.3 | −1.57 | 1.0 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Blue Jays | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Falcons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Knights | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clear Falls High School | Knights | Ewan Dossin '26 Korbin Bendele '25 Polsen Blake '25 |
Ben Vickers '24 Derek Perdue '30 Kale Bendele '27 |
|
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | James Brock '24 Ryder Getson '25 Wyatt Tauber '24 |
Lilly Wind '25 Zachary Romberg '26 Laura Covington '24 |
|
Clear Lake High School | Falcons | Andrew Hibbetts '25 Cole Gourley '25 Jack Cronan '25 |
Gabrielle Golemi '26 James Gonzalez '26 Julia Carlsen '25 |
|
Saint Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Aidan Castle '25 Landon Newton '26 Ruston Breisacher '24 |
Lane Burroughs '24 Kade Johnston '26 Michael Dawley '26 |
|
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | Aidan Mckoin '26 Connor Fanberg '26 Vincent Welty '26 |
Matthew Brown '26 Harrison Dietz '24 Dylan Davis '24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
