| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | 1–0 |
| 1 |  |
Darien High School | Blue Wave | 0–1 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 14,085 team race matches sailed before 2026-05-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 1 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.119 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greens Farms Academy Dragons | 1 | 3.83 school +0.08 | Colin Verrengia 0.96 Avery Beck 1.65 Hayes Cooper 1.14 | 89% | 1–0 (100%) | +0.1 |
| 1 | Darien High School Blue Wave | 2 | 1.18 | Chloe Dodd 0.77 Stefan Hartz John Lubeley | 11% | 0–1 (0%) | −0.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greens Farms Academy | 3.83 | 6.83 | 1–0 | 0.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 1 | Darien High School | 1.18 | -1.82 | 0–1 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greens Farms Academy | Darien High School | 89% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | Avery Beck '27 Colin Verrengia '27 Hayes Cooper '27 |
|
|
Darien High School | Blue Wave | Chloe Dodd '29 John Lubeley '26 Stefan Hartz '26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
