| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Port Angeles High School | Roughriders | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 3–3 |
| 4 |  |
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
Black Hills | Black Hills | 2–4 |
| 6 |  |
Bellingham High School | Bayhawks | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,107 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 21 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.450 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.19 ± 0.52: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosevelt High School | 2.84 | 5.84 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 2 | Port Angeles High School | 0.74 | 2.69 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.95 | 1.4 | 20% |
| 3 | Gig Harbor High School | -0.94 | 0.43 | 3–3 | 1.7 | +1.37 | 1.0 | 22% |
| 6 | Bellingham High School | -1.40 | -1.86 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.46 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 4 | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 0.68 | 0.08 | 3–3 | 3.6 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 5 | Black Hills | 0.01 | -0.86 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.87 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 7 | North Kitsap High School | -0.12 | -2.11 | 1–5 | 2.6 | −1.99 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Lee | Roosevelt High School | 1.69 | 4.69 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 52% |
| Elias Lawrence | Roosevelt High School | 0.86 | 3.86 | 6–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 52% |
| Charlie Kasten | Port Angeles High School | 0.47 | 2.42 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.95 | 1.4 | 20% |
| Isaac Anderson | Port Angeles High School | -0.05 | 1.90 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.95 | 1.4 | 20% |
| West Rainbolt | Gig Harbor High School | -0.10 | 1.27 | 3–3 | 1.7 | +1.37 | 1.0 | 22% |
| Lucy Pavlik-Brindl | Gig Harbor High School | -0.90 | 0.47 | 3–3 | 1.7 | +1.37 | 1.0 | 22% |
| Dominick Erickson | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 0.35 | -0.25 | 3–3 | 3.6 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Ava Schulz | Bellarmine Preparatory School | -0.07 | -0.67 | 3–3 | 3.6 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Tristian Filyes | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 0.52 | -0.08 | 3–3 | 3.6 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Eliot Atchinson | Black Hills | 0.33 | -0.55 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.87 | 0.4 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Black Hills | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bayhawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Black Hills | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Roughriders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tides | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Black Hills | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Roughriders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Black Hills | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Black Hills | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Roughriders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tides | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Lions | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Roughriders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Black Hills | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Roughriders | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | Elias Lawrence '28 Ethan Lee '28 Hao-Ran Hsu '27 |
Lucien Parsons '27 Aleksander Reiter '26 Hazel Cooper '29 |
|
Port Angeles High School | Roughriders | Caelan Prater '27 Charlie Kasten '26 Isaac Anderson '27 |
Eleanor Larsen '29 Axel Swanson '29 Sally Kasten '26 |
|
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | Brody Colbert '27 Lucy Pavlik-Brindl '30 West Rainbolt '30 |
Evangeline Garay '28 Hailey Brown '29 Ellyaena Jackson '29 |
|
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | Ava Schulz '29 Dominick Erickson '30 Tristian Filyes '28 |
Clara Watson '30 Jamie-Auset Ellis '30 Ryan Wilkins '27 |
|
Black Hills | Black Hills | Eliot Atchinson '30 Genevieve Joon '29 Sage Lieberman '30 |
Jack Mcconnell '27 Zoe Herman '30 Kaden Kim '27 |
|
Bellingham High School | Bayhawks | Dylan Meyer '29 Marin Hatch '28 Sotiri Lane '27 |
Dmitry Mora '29 Aiofe Tamminga '27 Ajax Neuman '28 |
|
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | Elliot Myhre '28 Kaisen Olkonen '27 Victor Gehring '26 |
Eli Carlson '28 William Frey '29 Milo Sterling '28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
