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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.81vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.22+2.65vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.87+5.95vs Predicted
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4University of Maryland2.18+3.69vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34-0.75vs Predicted
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6Colgate University1.10+5.56vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.47-0.32vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.21-0.46vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38-2.11vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy1.22+1.31vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook0.94+1.13vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-0.49vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.56-3.30vs Predicted
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14Queen's University0.63-1.17vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester0.94-3.97vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.31-2.95vs Predicted
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18Columbia University1.65-8.32vs Predicted
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19Syracuse University-1.14-2.26vs Predicted
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20University of Rochester0.94-7.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.3%1st Place
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4.65U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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8.95SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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7.69University of Maryland2.180.0%1st Place
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4.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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11.56Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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6.68Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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7.54Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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6.89Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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12.13SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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11.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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9.7Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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12.83Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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12.03University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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14.05Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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9.68Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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16.74Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
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12.03University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 30.2% | 24.2% | 16.2% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 11.2% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 17.1% | 16.5% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 22.2% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 12.1% | 68.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.