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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+5.24vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.27+3.05vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.13+9.46vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.16+1.79vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.28+0.06vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.54+2.06vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79+0.02vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.30-0.97vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.14-0.39vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.44-2.00vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.26-3.40vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.27-0.85vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.73-3.09vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.72-2.21vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.89vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.78-1.32vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.55-2.81vs Predicted
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18Drexel University-0.85-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.139.2%1st Place
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5.05Georgetown University2.2713.7%1st Place
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12.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.131.8%1st Place
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5.79University of Pennsylvania2.1610.9%1st Place
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5.06U. S. Naval Academy2.2814.0%1st Place
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8.06Fordham University1.545.5%1st Place
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7.02St. Mary's College of Maryland1.797.9%1st Place
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7.03Webb Institute1.308.0%1st Place
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8.61Cornell University1.145.3%1st Place
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8.0George Washington University1.445.6%1st Place
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7.6Old Dominion University1.266.5%1st Place
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11.15Princeton University0.272.6%1st Place
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9.91Christopher Newport University0.733.9%1st Place
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11.79Hampton University0.721.8%1st Place
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13.11SUNY Maritime College-0.131.3%1st Place
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14.68University of Virginia-0.780.8%1st Place
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14.19Washington College-0.550.6%1st Place
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15.26Drexel University-0.850.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Barnard | 13.7% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Finora | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| Jackson McAliley | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 14.0% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Landon Cormie | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Gustafson | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Blake Goodwin | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.0% |
| Luke Barker | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 10.7% |
| Mason Chapman | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 18.4% | 25.9% |
| Austin Latimer | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 19.3% | 18.1% |
| Lucas Randle | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 20.0% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.