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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+2.73vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.54+3.62vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.06+4.31vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.39+5.69vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23+1.58vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08+4.96vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-0.02vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.50-2.23vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University0.47+3.90vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.40-3.94vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.22-4.14vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79-0.23vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.52-3.64vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy1.17-3.40vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.09-1.26vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.21-2.42vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-5.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.73Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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5.62Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.31Georgetown University2.060.1%1st Place
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9.69Old Dominion University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.1%1st Place
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10.96St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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6.98St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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5.77Georgetown University2.500.1%1st Place
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12.9Georgetown University0.470.0%1st Place
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6.06U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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6.86U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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11.77Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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9.36Old Dominion University1.520.0%1st Place
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10.6U. S. Naval Academy1.170.0%1st Place
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13.74Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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13.58Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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11.47St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 23.7% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.0% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas McCann | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Chris Robertson | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Keiran James Golden | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Max Kleha | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 4.6% |
| Madison Bashaw | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 11.6% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Kriegstein | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 15.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Tanner Kelly | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| David Grace | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 9.4% |
| John Glenn | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Robert Ziman | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Max Shapiro | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 18.0% | 29.6% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 25.2% |
| Lily Flack | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.