Is it a good day to be an underdog?
Which conditions compress the fleet the most? Red means the results followed the ratings less than that fleet would predict — the favourites came back to the pack and an underdog had a chance. Green means the ratings held: the favourites' day.
Each map: angle is the wind direction the scorer stated, radius its speed in knots; colour is how far results followed the ratings beyond what the fleet alone predicted, as a fitted surface (the venue's offset, its wind-speed slope and direction terms, all shrunk toward the global pattern), or optionally as the average of nearby days. Dots are labelled regatta-days (hover anywhere for the smoothed value; hover a dot for its event). Pick two venues, or click a nearby venue to load it in the other panel.
Background:
Venues with 15+ labelled days. Stats: speed slope is residual orderliness per 10 knots within the venue; direction p is a permutation test of whether the venue's days differ by direction beyond chance (speed removed); the group is from the clustering in the note (30+ days only). Small venues are noisy: a dozen days make a quadrant.