A self-built statistics project on 26 seasons of college sailing

Ranking college sailors with a model that actually gets validated

Existing sailing rankings are mostly eyeballed win totals. This project fits a real statistical model — a temporal Plackett–Luce ranking — to 600k+ scraped race results, and checks it against races it never saw.

Quinn Brighton · Applied Math–CS, Brown University · Class of 2027 Email LinkedIn GitHub

100K+

Training races

24K+

Sailors modeled

13.7M

Parameters

70%

Held‑out accuracy

This week's predictions

Live output from the model above — win probability from 5,000 Monte Carlo race simulations per regatta, built on the predicted lineups. Check back after results post to see how it did.

Rose Bowl

USC · 01/02/2027

Boston College — 85% win

KP Women's Invite

Kings Point · 09/12/2026

2

24%

Cornell University

1

44%

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

3

18%

University of Pennsylvania

Harman Cup

Maine Maritime · 09/12/2026

2

22%

Boston University

1

24%

Tufts University

3

17%

Bowdoin College

KP Dinghy Open Invite

Kings Point · 09/12/2026

2

19%

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

1

24%

Princeton University

3

14%

Fordham University

ILCA North

Kings Point · 09/12/2026

2

19%

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

1

39%

Cornell University

3

14%

Penn State University

Penobscot Bay Open

Maine Maritime · 09/12/2026

2

21%

Boston University

1

24%

Salve Regina University

3

15%

Northeastern University

SAISA North Fall Tournament

UNC Wilmington · 09/13/2026

2

9%

University of Tennessee

1

71%

Clemson University

3

9%

North Carolina State University

NEISA Open Singlehanded Championship

Boston College · 09/18/2026

2

12%

Roger Williams University

1

19%

Connecticut College

3

11%

Yale University

Regis Trophy

Boston University · 09/19/2026

2

29%

Yale University

1

33%

Harvard University

3

8%

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

SAISA Women's Top 9

Charleston · 09/19/2026

2

21%

Rollins College

1

45%

College of Charleston

3

13%

University of South Florida

Susan Rogers

Cornell · 09/19/2026

2

8%

Fordham University

1

82%

Cornell University

3

5%

University of Pennsylvania

2026 SAISA Women's Sprint

North Carolina State · 09/19/2026

2

22%

University of Florida

1

43%

North Carolina State University

3

15%

University of South Carolina

PCCSC Women's Singlehanded Championship

Washington · 09/19/2026

2

28%

University of Hawaii

1

60%

Stanford University

3

12%

University of Washington

Hatch Brown Trophy 2026

MIT · 09/19/2026

2

16%

Roger Williams University

1

25%

Boston College

3

16%

Yale University

SAISA Open Top 9

Charleston · 09/19/2026

2

17%

Florida State University

1

19%

North Carolina State University

3

16%

University of South Florida

Mystic Lake Invite

Tufts · 09/19/2026

2

21%

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

1

37%

Roger Williams University

3

18%

Tufts University

PCCSC Open Singlehanded Championship

Washington · 09/19/2026

2

10%

California Poly Maritime Academy

1

72%

Stanford University

3

6%

University of Southern California

Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite

Cornell · 09/19/2026

2

21%

University of Pennsylvania

1

59%

Fordham University

3

13%

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

Eli Invite

Yale · 09/19/2026

2

30%

Connecticut College

1

39%

Yale University

3

25%

Fairfield University

Cary Price

Michigan · 09/19/2026

2

23%

University of Wisconsin

1

23%

Northwestern University

3

20%

Texas A&M University

Kingsmill Cup

William and Mary · 09/19/2026

2

10%

University of Maryland

1

61%

Virginia Tech

3

10%

Christopher Newport University

Donaghy Bowl

U. Connecticut · 09/19/2026

2

6%

Sacred Heart University

1

84%

Brown University

3

3%

Amherst College

Mrs. Hurst

Dartmouth College · 09/26/2026

2

13%

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

1

57%

Harvard University

3

6%

Northeastern University

Hoyt Trophy

Brown University · 09/26/2026

2

14%

Dartmouth College

1

26%

Brown University

3

12%

Yale University

Match Race NE Champs

Maine Maritime Academy · 09/26/2026

2

20%

Yale University

1

58%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

3

11%

Tufts University

Eagle Invite

Boston College · 09/26/2026

2

33%

Boston College

1

45%

Roger Williams University

3

15%

Brown University

Salt Pond Saturday

University of Rhode Island · 09/26/2026

2

24%

Connecticut College

1

42%

Roger Williams University

3

20%

University of Rhode Island

Callagy Ross Trophy

University of Vermont · 09/26/2026

2

28%

Salve Regina University

1

49%

Northeastern University

3

13%

University of Vermont

Courageous Ross Trophy

University of New Hampshire · 09/26/2026

2

18%

Bentley University

1

59%

Olin College of Engineering

3

18%

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

SAISA Women's Top 6 Invite

South Florida · 09/26/2026

2

20%

Rollins College

1

50%

College of Charleston

3

12%

University of South Florida

SAISA Match Race Championship

Charleston · 09/26/2026

2

42%

Rollins College

1

55%

University of Miami

3

2%

University of Central Florida

MCSA Sloop Championship

Hillsdale · 09/26/2026

2

20%

Hope College

1

41%

Hillsdale College

3

20%

Ohio State University

David Van Cleef Memorial Trophy

U South Carolina · 09/26/2026

2

28%

North Carolina State University

1

60%

Clemson University

3

6%

University of South Carolina

Hood Trophy

Tufts · 09/26/2026

2

22%

Brown University

1

24%

Boston College

3

15%

Harvard University

Jefferson Cup

Virginia · 09/26/2026

2

10%

Christopher Newport University

1

61%

Virginia Tech

3

10%

University of Maryland

Richard Ross College Bowl

New Hampshire · 09/26/2026

2

39%

Bentley University

1

55%

Olin College of Engineering

3

3%

Amherst College

28th Mrs Hurst Bowl

Dartmouth · 09/26/2026

2

11%

Connecticut College

1

45%

Boston College

3

10%

University of Rhode Island

Salt Pond Sunday

University of Rhode Island · 09/27/2026

2

20%

Connecticut College

1

36%

Roger Williams University

3

19%

University of Rhode Island

Bowdoin Mid Week Invite

Bowdoin College · 10/01/2026

2

18%

Maine Maritime Academy

1

75%

Bowdoin College

3

4%

Colby College

WACC Round 1B

Bowdoin College · 10/03/2026

2

28%

Brown University

1

41%

Harvard University

3

17%

Roger Williams University

WACC Round 1A

Dartmouth College · 10/03/2026

2

21%

Tufts University

1

33%

Yale University

3

17%

Dartmouth College

Smith Trophy

Massachusetts Institute of Technology · 10/03/2026

2

17%

Dartmouth College

1

23%

Brown University

3

16%

Harvard University

Danmark Trophy

U. S. Coast Guard Academy · 10/03/2026

2

19%

Brown University

1

23%

Yale University

3

18%

Boston College

Moody Trophy

University of Rhode Island · 10/03/2026

2

19%

Tufts University

1

24%

Roger Williams University

3

18%

Brown University

Jesuit Open

FRD · 10/03/2026

2

25%

Maine Maritime Academy

1

38%

Yale University

3

18%

Tufts University

BU Invite

Boston University · 10/03/2026

2

17%

Brown University

1

50%

Boston College

3

10%

Tufts University

Charleston Fall

COC · 10/03/2026

insufficient data

Stewart Walker Trophy

Middlebury College · 10/03/2026

2

11%

University of Massachusetts at Amherst

1

77%

McGill University

3

7%

Amherst College

McGill Cup

McGill University · 10/03/2026

2

28%

Amherst College

1

66%

McGill University

3

6%

University of Massachusetts at Amherst

SHU Trophy

Sacred Heart University · 10/04/2026

2

18%

Brandeis University

1

38%

Babson College

3

11%

Sacred Heart University

Stu Nelson

Connecticut College · 10/10/2026

2

18%

Brown University

1

49%

Yale University

3

11%

Harvard University

Sister Esther Trophy

Salve Regina University · 10/10/2026

2

17%

Harvard University

1

22%

Boston College

3

16%

Brown University

Hewitt Trophy

Bowdoin College · 10/10/2026

2

19%

Tufts University

1

21%

Bowdoin College

3

18%

Boston College

Great Herring Pond Open

Massachusetts Maritime Academy · 10/10/2026

2

9%

Northeastern University

1

72%

Brown University

3

8%

McGill University

Protest Trophy

Bates College · 10/10/2026

2

32%

Colby College

1

35%

Williams College

3

19%

Bates College

Captain Hurst

Dartmouth College · 10/17/2026

2

17%

Dartmouth College

1

25%

Brown University

3

15%

Boston College

Savin Hill Invite

Boston College · 10/17/2026

2

27%

Brown University

1

28%

Boston College

3

8%

Connecticut College

Nevins

KP · 10/17/2026

2

29%

Tufts University

1

43%

Yale University

3

15%

Boston University

Dave Perry Trophy

Yale University · 10/17/2026

2

32%

Brown University

1

47%

Boston College

3

15%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

Peak Foliage

University of New Hampshire · 10/17/2026

2

18%

Boston University

1

48%

Maine Maritime Academy

3

14%

Northeastern University

Crew's Regatta

??? · 10/18/2026

2

22%

Northeastern University

1

69%

Brown University

3

5%

McGill University

Reese's Cup

University of New Hampshire · 10/18/2026

2

26%

Salve Regina University

1

51%

Maine Maritime Academy

3

4%

McGill University

Yale Women's

Yale University · 10/24/2026

2

24%

Yale University

1

26%

Harvard University

3

15%

Brown University

Oberg Trophy

NU/MIT · 10/24/2026

2

24%

Roger Williams University

1

36%

Brown University

3

11%

Dartmouth College

Norman Reid TR

Boston College · 10/24/2026

2

23%

Harvard University

1

48%

Boston College

3

13%

Roger Williams University

Conn College Invite

Connecticut College · 10/24/2026

2

20%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

1

24%

Connecticut College

3

20%

Salve Regina University

Loder Trophy

University of New Hampshire · 10/24/2026

2

20%

University of Vermont

1

20%

Northeastern University

3

17%

McGill University

Lane Trophy TR

Tufts University · 10/25/2026

2

21%

Tufts University

1

60%

Boston College

3

16%

Brown University

Nickerson Trophy

Tufts University · 10/31/2026

2

16%

Dartmouth College

1

23%

Brown University

3

13%

Boston College

Terrier Invite

Boston University · 10/31/2026

2

17%

Boston University

1

20%

Roger Williams University

3

14%

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

See predicted lineups — not just who wins, but who sails — or full simulated standings for every regatta.

What the model produces

How it works

Every sailor gets a latent skill value θ[sailor, week] for every ISO week they've been active — a full trajectory, not one static number. It's fit by maximum likelihood under the Plackett–Luce distribution (the standard way to model a full finishing order, not just win/loss), with an L2 anchor plus log–cosh penalties on week‑to‑week velocity and acceleration so skill can drift realistically instead of chasing noise — trained in PyTorch on GPU, batched by fleet size, over roughly 13.7 million parameters.

A second tool, the Boat Speed Analyzer, is built on the same data: it compares a school's fleet-race performance across two time windows and flags whether the difference is statistically significant, so a real speed change isn't confused with normal race-to-race noise.

Validated, not just fit

The model is trained on 100,000+ races across 24,000+ sailors, and checked against a random 1-in-20 sample of regattas held out before fitting — races it never saw during training.

Why I built this

• College sailing rankings are usually eyeballed or based on raw win totals — I wanted something that could actually be validated against held-out results.
• As Club Captain of Brown Sailing, I use this data to make real decisions about lineups and scheduling, not just as a portfolio piece.
• It's the project that convinced me I want to work somewhere that rewards building real statistical models against real data.

Explore it