A self-built statistics project on 26 seasons of college sailing

Ranking college sailors with a model that actually gets validated

Existing sailing rankings are mostly eyeballed win totals. This project fits a real statistical model — a temporal Plackett–Luce ranking — to 600k+ scraped race results, and checks it against races it never saw.

Quinn Brighton · Applied Math–CS, Brown University · Class of 2027 Email LinkedIn GitHub

100K+

Training races

24K+

Sailors modeled

13.7M

Parameters

70%

Held‑out accuracy

This week's predictions

Live output from the model above — win probability from 5,000 Monte Carlo race simulations per regatta, built on the predicted lineups. Check back after results post to see how it did.

Rose Bowl

USC · 01/02/2027

Boston College — 58% win

SEISA Match Race Championship

Texas A&M C. Christ · 09/11/2026

Texas A&M University — 55% win

KP Women's Invite

Kings Point · 09/12/2026

2

28%

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

1

42%

Cornell University

3

19%

University of Pennsylvania

SEISA Women's Single Handed Championship

Texas A&M C. Christ · 09/12/2026

2

22%

Texas A&M University

1

76%

Tulane University

3

2%

University of Texas

Bears Invite

Brown · 09/12/2026

2

27%

Roger Williams University

1

37%

Yale University

3

18%

Brown University

Harman Cup

Maine Maritime · 09/12/2026

2

22%

Boston University

1

31%

Tufts University

3

16%

Bowdoin College

KP Dinghy Open Invite

Kings Point · 09/12/2026

2

22%

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

1

24%

Princeton University

3

15%

Fordham University

ILCA North

Kings Point · 09/12/2026

2

15%

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

1

24%

Queen's University

3

12%

Cornell University

Mt. Hope Bay Invite

Roger Williams · 09/12/2026

2

25%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

1

28%

Salve Regina University

3

19%

University of Rhode Island

Penobscot Bay Open

Maine Maritime · 09/12/2026

2

22%

Salve Regina University

1

22%

Boston University

3

14%

Northeastern University

Fall Fury

Wisconsin · 09/12/2026

2

23%

University of Michigan

1

27%

Purdue University

3

18%

Northwestern University

Lone Star Regatta

Texas A&M C. Christ · 09/12/2026

2

32%

Texas A&M University

1

56%

Tulane University

3

8%

Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi

SAISA North Fall Tournament

UNC Wilmington · 09/13/2026

2

43%

Clemson University

1

43%

North Carolina State University

3

6%

University of South Carolina

SEISA Men's Single Handed Championship

Texas A&M C. Christ · 09/13/2026

Tulane University — 79% win

Women's NE Singlehanded Nationals Qualifier

Boston College · 09/18/2026

2

24%

Yale University

1

30%

Harvard University

3

12%

Brown University

Monotype Trophy NE Singlehanded Championship

Boston College · 09/18/2026

2

19%

Brown University

1

25%

Roger Williams University

3

14%

University of Rhode Island

Regis Trophy

Boston University · 09/19/2026

2

17%

Roger Williams University

1

28%

Yale University

3

13%

Dartmouth College

Hatch Brown Trophy

Massachusetts Institute of Technology · 09/19/2026

2

15%

Harvard University

1

31%

Brown University

3

14%

Boston College

Mystic Lake Invite

Tufts University · 09/19/2026

2

36%

Roger Williams University

1

48%

Boston College

3

11%

Tufts University

Eli Invite

Yale University · 09/19/2026

2

11%

Connecticut College

1

83%

Olin College of Engineering

3

6%

Yale University

Nicholas Barnett Trophy

Bowdoin · 09/19/2026

2

17%

McGill University

1

54%

Northeastern University

3

10%

Massachusetts Maritime Academy

Donaghy Bowl

University of Connecticut · 09/19/2026

2

9%

Sacred Heart University

1

74%

Brown University

3

6%

University of Massachusetts at Amherst

Cary Price

Michigan · 09/19/2026

2

16%

Ohio State University

1

22%

Northwestern University

3

13%

Miami University

John Quinn

Monmouth · 09/19/2026

2

17%

Rutgers University

1

38%

University of Maryland/Baltimore County

3

16%

Villanova University

2026 SAISA Women's Sprint

North Carolina State · 09/19/2026

2

15%

University of Florida

1

46%

North Carolina State University

3

12%

University of North Carolina

Kathryn Hammond

Texas · 09/19/2026

2

20%

Louisiana Tech University

1

35%

Texas A&M University

3

19%

Texas A&M University at Galveston

Kingsmill Cup

William and Mary · 09/19/2026

2

10%

American University

1

61%

Virginia Tech

3

9%

University of Maryland

Battle of Lake Erie

Mercyhurst/Penn State Behrend · 09/19/2026

2

19%

Mercyhurst University

1

71%

Queen's University

3

5%

Penn State University

2026 Triangle Tango Intercollegiate Regatta

North Carolina State · 09/20/2026

2

5%

University of South Carolina

1

79%

North Carolina State University

3

5%

Wake Forest University

Mrs. Hurst

Dartmouth College · 09/26/2026

2

20%

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

1

26%

Dartmouth College

3

13%

Harvard University

Hoyt Trophy

Brown University · 09/26/2026

2

15%

Yale University

1

35%

Brown University

3

11%

Harvard University

Hood Trophy

Tufts University · 09/26/2026

2

17%

Brown University

1

28%

Boston College

3

14%

Roger Williams University

Match Race NE Champs

Maine Maritime Academy · 09/26/2026

2

27%

Tufts University

1

31%

Brown University

3

16%

Dartmouth College

Eagle Invite

Boston College · 09/26/2026

2

37%

Boston College

1

50%

Roger Williams University

3

11%

Brown University

Salt Pond Saturday

University of Rhode Island · 09/26/2026

2

26%

University of Rhode Island

1

38%

Roger Williams University

3

22%

Connecticut College

Callagy Ross Trophy

University of Vermont · 09/26/2026

2

24%

University of Vermont

1

55%

Northeastern University

3

10%

Massachusetts Maritime Academy

Courageous Ross Trophy

University of New Hampshire · 09/26/2026

2

32%

University of New Hampshire

1

41%

Olin College of Engineering

3

20%

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Salt Pond Sunday

University of Rhode Island · 09/27/2026

2

24%

Connecticut College

1

28%

University of Rhode Island

3

22%

Salve Regina University

Bowdoin Mid Week Invite

Bowdoin College · 10/01/2026

2

35%

Bowdoin College

1

59%

Maine Maritime Academy

3

3%

Bates College

WACC Round 1B

Bowdoin College · 10/03/2026

2

34%

Roger Williams University

1

39%

Brown University

3

10%

Harvard University

WACC Round 1A

Dartmouth College · 10/03/2026

2

20%

Tufts University

1

34%

Yale University

3

19%

Dartmouth College

Smith Trophy

Massachusetts Institute of Technology · 10/03/2026

2

14%

Boston College

1

33%

Brown University

3

13%

Harvard University

Danmark Trophy

U. S. Coast Guard Academy · 10/03/2026

2

18%

Boston College

1

24%

Harvard University

3

17%

Yale University

Moody Trophy

University of Rhode Island · 10/03/2026

2

23%

Roger Williams University

1

36%

Brown University

3

12%

Tufts University

BU Invite

Boston University · 10/03/2026

2

24%

Brown University

1

41%

Boston College

3

16%

Tufts University

Jesuit Open

FRD · 10/03/2026

2

27%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

1

33%

Maine Maritime Academy

3

21%

Tufts University

Charleston Fall

COC · 10/03/2026

insufficient data

Stewart Walker Trophy

Middlebury College · 10/03/2026

2

17%

University of Massachusetts at Amherst

1

51%

McGill University

3

15%

Williams College

McGill Cup

McGill University · 10/03/2026

2

11%

Massachusetts Maritime Academy

1

76%

McGill University

3

8%

Amherst College

SHU Trophy

Sacred Heart University · 10/04/2026

2

14%

Brandeis University

1

57%

Babson College

3

11%

Sacred Heart University

Stu Nelson

Connecticut College · 10/10/2026

2

18%

Brown University

1

58%

Yale University

3

11%

Harvard University

Sister Esther Trophy

Salve Regina University · 10/10/2026

2

24%

Harvard University

1

27%

Boston College

3

12%

Roger Williams University

Hewitt Trophy

Bowdoin College · 10/10/2026

2

18%

Bowdoin College

1

19%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

3

13%

Dartmouth College

Great Herring Pond Open

Massachusetts Maritime Academy · 10/10/2026

2

10%

Olin College of Engineering

1

72%

Brown University

3

7%

Northeastern University

Protest Trophy

Bates College · 10/10/2026

2

36%

Williams College

1

47%

Bates College

3

12%

Colby College

Captain Hurst

Dartmouth College · 10/17/2026

2

16%

Yale University

1

33%

Brown University

3

15%

Boston College

Savin Hill Invite

Boston College · 10/17/2026

2

15%

Brown University

1

20%

Connecticut College

3

12%

University of Rhode Island

Nevins

KP · 10/17/2026

2

27%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

1

45%

Tufts University

3

21%

Boston University

Dave Perry Trophy

Yale University · 10/17/2026

2

23%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

1

49%

Brown University

3

17%

Boston College

Peak Foliage

University of New Hampshire · 10/17/2026

2

10%

McGill University

1

58%

Maine Maritime Academy

3

9%

Northeastern University

Crew's Regatta

??? · 10/18/2026

2

13%

Northeastern University

1

75%

Brown University

3

7%

McGill University

Reese's Cup

University of New Hampshire · 10/18/2026

2

26%

Salve Regina University

1

46%

Maine Maritime Academy

3

9%

Olin College of Engineering

Yale Women's

Yale University · 10/24/2026

2

13%

Brown University

1

40%

Yale University

3

11%

Roger Williams University

Oberg Trophy

NU/MIT · 10/24/2026

2

14%

Tufts University

1

48%

Roger Williams University

3

12%

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Norman Reid TR

Boston College · 10/24/2026

2

35%

Harvard University

1

43%

Boston College

3

12%

Tufts University

Conn College Invite

Connecticut College · 10/24/2026

2

26%

University of Rhode Island

1

34%

Salve Regina University

3

17%

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

Loder Trophy

University of New Hampshire · 10/24/2026

2

17%

Olin College of Engineering

1

19%

Northeastern University

3

15%

McGill University

Lane Trophy TR

Tufts University · 10/25/2026

2

13%

Tufts University

1

76%

Boston College

3

10%

Brown University

Nickerson Trophy

Tufts University · 10/31/2026

2

16%

Boston College

1

18%

Yale University

3

16%

Brown University

Terrier Invite

Boston University · 10/31/2026

2

15%

University of Rhode Island

1

18%

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

3

14%

Brown University

See predicted lineups — not just who wins, but who sails — or full simulated standings for every regatta.

What the model produces

How it works

Every sailor gets a latent skill value θ[sailor, week] for every ISO week they've been active — a full trajectory, not one static number. It's fit by maximum likelihood under the Plackett–Luce distribution (the standard way to model a full finishing order, not just win/loss), with an L2 anchor plus log–cosh penalties on week‑to‑week velocity and acceleration so skill can drift realistically instead of chasing noise — trained in PyTorch on GPU, batched by fleet size, over roughly 13.7 million parameters.

A second tool, the Boat Speed Analyzer, is built on the same data: it compares a school's fleet-race performance across two time windows and flags whether the difference is statistically significant, so a real speed change isn't confused with normal race-to-race noise.

Validated, not just fit

The model is trained on 100,000+ races across 24,000+ sailors, and checked against a random 1-in-20 sample of regattas held out before fitting — races it never saw during training.

Why I built this

• College sailing rankings are usually eyeballed or based on raw win totals — I wanted something that could actually be validated against held-out results.
• As Club Captain of Brown Sailing, I use this data to make real decisions about lineups and scheduling, not just as a portfolio piece.
• It's the project that convinced me I want to work somewhere that rewards building real statistical models against real data.

Explore it