Predicted lineups

Upcoming Fall 2026 regattas. Fleet: skipper per division. Singlehanded and match race: skipper, crew and a calibrated entry rating. Simulated results →

Method and forward-test accuracy

Fleet skippers	Selection network over the school's live roster: recent frequency, rating, regatta strength. Crew: most frequent partner (heuristic, not model output). † = carried forward from last season's roster.
Singlehanded / match race	Conditional logit per school over its last-18-month pool: previous editions of this event (matched by name and conference), discipline experience and recency, rating rank, fleet activity, years left. Crew chosen given the skipper. Trained on 80% rating error + 20% personnel error.
Entry rating	Ridge on the probability-weighted rating, best-rated sailors and previous-edition level; averaged over 2,000 simulated weekends in which specialist events are staffed first and a sailor sails one boat. Interval: 80%, from simulation spread and forward-test error.
Field strength	Mean calibrated entry rating, averaged with the previous editions' level.

	Singlehanded	Match race
Entry-rating error, calibrated	0.43	0.44
Best-rated sailor sails	0.49	0.62
Most likely squad	0.55	0.55
Exact skipper named	63%	46%
Crew named	—	38%
Field strength error (112 events)	0.19–0.22 (typical event: 0.54–0.63)

Forward test by season, rating points. Ratings are today's, so slightly optimistic.

Every regatta this week

Rose Bowl

USC · 01/02/2027 · 2 schools

Last year's field: mean 1.95 · median 2.08 · max 5.08 (454 sailors)

School	Predicted Skipper	Predicted Crew
Boston College	A Alex Lech (4.16) 46% B Cody Roe (3.98) 53%	A Damien Bocan (42/74 races) B Christian Yanoti (36/36 races)
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	A Benjamin Reeser (3.38) 36% B Richard Pokorny (3.16) 43%	A Isabella Clark (46/110 races) B Gavin Vanmanen (21/97 races)

ICSA Match Race National Championship

Southern Cal · 11/14/2026 · Keelboat, 4 aboard · 2 schools

Field strength1.16prev editions 1.17 · entries 1.14

School	Skipper	Crew	Rating	80% interval (-0.5 to 2.8)	P(skipper)
College of Charleston	Charlie Allen	Maxwell McCormick, Oliver Puris, Forrest Williams	2.11		46%
University of South Florida	Hannes Leonard	Esme Pray, Ruth Bergman, Sara Menesale	0.18		97%

• = a likely skipper may be committed elsewhere that day.

Tufts Sailing Alumni Team Race

Tufts · 11/14/2026 · 1 schools

Last year's field: mean 1.39 · median 1.00 · max 3.91 (220 sailors)

School	Predicted Skipper	Predicted Crew
Tufts University	A Pearse Dowd (3.65) 60% B Oliver Keeves (3.66) 100% C Cody Lamoreux (2.06) 100%	A Sean Beaver (32/46 races) B Reddin Kehrli (67/101 races) C Cici Priest (roster guess, 15%)