Team Racing

Matches31,338 with full line-ups
Held-out forecast78.8% of 6,335 matches called, log-loss 0.438

What the site does with team racing

Forecasts. Every team race regatta page has a Ratings & Forecast tab: each side's pre-event strength and boat values, the forecast for every match, who beat it, and the event's measured orderliness. Upcoming team races get a forecast of the round robin from each school's likely line-up.
Ratings. The power rankings have a Team Race selector: what each skipper brings to one of the three boats, and a school table that adds the three best skippers and the school's own team race term.
Sailor pages show a team race rating, its history before each regatta, and a regatta-by-regatta surprisal: the record against the expected record, and how surprising it was.
Plays. An explorer for how team races are won: the mix of finish sets, by play, as a side gets stronger, as one boat is raised, as a star is built, by breeze and level, with a high school toggle.

Three notes explain the work: how team race forecasts work, which team races go to form and Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are won.

How the forecast works, in one paragraph

A side's strength is the sum over its three boats of 0.72 times the skipper's fleet rating, plus a small team race offset for the skipper and the crew (shrunk toward zero; their fitted spread is only 0.030 and 0.026), plus the school's team race term (spread 0.22) and a home-water edge of 0.31 when the school hosts. The chance that one side beats the other is the logistic of the difference. Fleet ratings alone call 77.9% of held-out matches; the full model calls 78.8%. Details and what did not help are in the methodology.

Recent team race regattas

Forecast made before the event; called is the share of matches where the favourite won; orderliness is how much more (green) or less (red) the favourites won than the forecast said, with its standard error. Nothing known in advance predicts an event's orderliness (field, host and wind all fail), so it is a description, not a prediction.

Date	Regatta	Matches	Called	Log-loss	Orderliness
2026-04-26	ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship	126	81%	0.443	+0.20 ± 0.19
2026-04-23	ICSA Open Team Race National Championship	154	72%	0.491	+0.00 ± 0.17
2026-04-12	Alymers Team race	38	79%	0.404	+0.14 ± 0.31
2026-04-11	MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship	57	75%	0.486	-0.03 ± 0.25
2026-04-11	NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler	79	73%	0.514	+0.08 ± 0.23
2026-04-11	Thompson Trophy	117	74%	0.509	-0.10 ± 0.18
2026-04-10	MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier	30	93%	0.210	+0.38 ± 0.33
2026-04-10	PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship	25	88%	0.266	+0.22 ± 0.40
2026-04-10	SAISA Women's Team Race Champs	18	89%	0.289	+0.25 ± 0.40
2026-04-04	Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship	48	69%	0.468	-0.19 ± 0.27
2026-04-04	Mystic Lake Team Race	56	70%	0.567	+0.00 ± 0.30
2026-04-04	NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	100	82%	0.469	-0.01 ± 0.19
2026-04-04	Prosser Trophy MAISA Open Team Race Championship	58	78%	0.430	+0.15 ± 0.24
2026-04-04	SAISA Open Team Race Championship	63	76%	0.441	-0.13 ± 0.22
2026-04-04	Yale Women's	20	75%	0.423	+0.33 ± 0.45
2026-04-03	SEISA Open Team Race Conference Championship	12	100%	0.005	+0.21 ± 0.82
2026-04-03	Tulane Women's Team Race	30	77%	0.396	+0.14 ± 0.32
2026-03-28	Callahan Trophy	18	78%	0.585	+0.19 ± 0.59
2026-03-28	Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy	96	69%	0.547	+0.00 ± 0.22
2026-03-28	Islands Cup	21	81%	0.501	-0.50 ± 0.39
2026-03-28	Jumbo Team Race	77	82%	0.503	-0.63 ± 0.22
2026-03-28	The Lynn Marchiando Trophy Team Race-2026	138	81%	0.421	+0.21 ± 0.16
2026-03-22	BC Team Race	30	90%	0.335	+0.17 ± 0.33
2026-03-21	Aaron Szambecki Team Race	65	68%	0.496	+0.01 ± 0.28
2026-03-21	Admiral Moore Team Race	18	78%	0.493	-0.52 ± 0.41
2026-03-21	Big 10 Team Race	30	50%	0.984	-1.68 ± 0.33
2026-03-21	Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race	40	68%	0.626	-0.42 ± 0.32
2026-03-21	Brenton Cove Team Race	54	76%	0.568	+0.40 ± 0.38
2026-03-21	Duplin Women's Team Race	74	73%	0.549	-0.36 ± 0.21
2026-03-21	The Friis Trophy	78	81%	0.429	-0.08 ± 0.21
2026-03-21	KP Open Team Race	45	87%	0.314	+0.47 ± 0.30
2026-03-21	RWU Team Race	30	93%	0.265	+0.24 ± 0.33
2026-03-21	Seahawk Team Race	45	93%	0.213	+0.39 ± 0.26
2026-03-21	St. John's Open Team Race	30	63%	0.501	-0.07 ± 0.37
2026-03-21	Staake Trophy	36	75%	0.418	+0.25 ± 0.32
2026-03-14	Bud Morrow Open Team Race	66	83%	0.396	+0.01 ± 0.23
2026-03-14	CofC Women's Team Race	40	78%	0.464	+0.02 ± 0.29
2026-03-14	Geiger Trophy	30	83%	0.450	-0.05 ± 0.33
2026-03-14	Graham Hall Team Race	162	78%	0.408	+0.04 ± 0.15
2026-03-14	Southern NE Team Race	43	65%	0.622	-0.20 ± 0.38
2026-03-14	WAC Team Race @ Fordham	18	78%	0.388	+0.00 ± 0.41
2026-03-14	Women's SNE Team Race	44	68%	0.589	-0.47 ± 0.28
2026-03-07	2026 Jen Harris Team Race	53	77%	0.492	-0.38 ± 0.25
2026-03-07	Bob Bavier Open Team Race	56	73%	0.576	-0.34 ± 0.25
2026-03-07	John Jackson Memorial Team Race	38	74%	0.475	+0.44 ± 0.36
2026-03-07	Mustang Team Race	21	76%	0.550	-0.41 ± 0.38
2026-03-07	Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race	30	83%	0.400	+0.08 ± 0.57
2026-03-07	Salve TR Invite	34	97%	0.218	+0.52 ± 0.34
2026-03-07	St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference	45	91%	0.225	+0.37 ± 0.30
2026-03-07	The Wood Trophy	72	92%	0.269	+0.41 ± 0.20
2026-03-01	Harvard Women's Team Race	36	78%	0.442	+0.02 ± 0.30
2026-03-01	McMerrick Team Race Sunday	28	89%	0.213	+0.46 ± 0.34
2026-02-28	Green Wave Women's Team Race	15	80%	0.303	+0.56 ± 0.47
2026-02-28	Liam O'Keefe '26 Trophy Team Race	28	82%	0.424	+0.20 ± 0.36
2026-02-28	McMerrick Team Race Saturday	52	88%	0.216	+0.34 ± 0.24
2026-02-28	Mendelblatt Open Team Race	49	76%	0.460	-0.10 ± 0.27
2026-02-28	NA Open Team Race at SMC	45	76%	0.419	-0.10 ± 0.26
2026-02-28	Nelson Roltsch Team Race	30	90%	0.214	+0.36 ± 0.41
2026-02-28	ODU Women's Team Race	18	83%	0.419	+0.22 ± 0.43
2026-02-21	Corpus Christi Spring Open Team Race	18	78%	0.411	-0.92 ± 0.53
2026-02-21	Jeff Mixdorf	21	76%	0.753	-0.96 ± 0.40
2026-02-21	McIntyre Team Race	90	89%	0.278	+0.27 ± 0.22
2026-02-21	USF Women's TR - Ashley Reynolds Reali Memorial	24	79%	0.468	+0.09 ± 0.37
2026-02-15	SAISA Open Top 6 Team Race	21	81%	0.388	-0.08 ± 0.38
2026-02-15	SAISA Women's Top 6 Team Race	21	81%	0.366	-0.07 ± 0.38
2025-10-19	The Lane Trophy Team Race	20	90%	0.240	+0.36 ± 0.71
2025-10-18	Norman Reid Team Race	30	90%	0.124	+0.17 ± 0.36

The school term

What a school adds to the sum of its three boats, in rating units, for schools with at least 500 matches (top 10 of 35). These programmes win more team races than their fleet ratings alone would predict, season after season.

School	Team race term	Matches	Win share
University of Miami	+0.56 ± 0.16	520	45%
St. Mary's College of Maryland	+0.48 ± 0.12	1,860	59%
Stanford University	+0.46 ± 0.12	1,909	78%
Roger Williams University	+0.45 ± 0.08	2,994	61%
College of Charleston	+0.45 ± 0.10	2,014	65%
Dartmouth College	+0.41 ± 0.10	1,773	55%
Boston College	+0.36 ± 0.10	2,381	64%
Tufts University	+0.36 ± 0.08	3,040	51%
Yale University	+0.32 ± 0.10	2,274	71%
Georgetown University	+0.32 ± 0.12	1,910	69%

How team races are won

Across 29,869 college matches, the winner held first place in 88% of light-air wins and 84% of heavy-air wins; college winners win through Play 2 and Play 4 more as the breeze builds, high school winners sweep 1-2-3 more. A star with two weak boats wins the same way as three even boats. Explore the mix of finish sets or read the note.

Orderliness over 603 ICSA team race regattas: true event-to-event spread 0.30, split-half agreement r = +0.34, field R² +0.02, wind r = -0.07.

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →

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