Duplin Women's Team Race

HostTufts
Date03/21/2026
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–3
2	Brown University	Bears	12–4
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	10–6
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	10–6
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	9–7
6	Harvard University	Crimson	7–9
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	6–10
8	University of Rhode Island	Rams	4–12
9	Northeastern University	Huskies	1–8
10	Fordham University	Rams	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 54 of 74 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.549 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.36 ± 0.21: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 15% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	10.39 school +0.32	Carly Kieding / Sarah Moeder 3.29 Dorothy Mendelblatt / Julia Miller 3.52 Elle Sykes / Clara Díaz Suárez 3.24 9–3 Elle Sykes / Ella Benedetto 3.24 4–0	80%	13–3 (81%)	+0.1
2	Brown University Bears	2	10.15 school +0.28	Katharine Doble / Reese Corckran 3.39 11–4 Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 3.52 7–1 Katherine Mcnamara / Katherine Majette 3.09 5–3 Laura Hamilton / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.60 4–3 Katherine Mcnamara / Gabby Collins 3.06 5–1 Sidney Moyer / Michelle Kaneti 2.60 4–0	79%	12–4 (75%)	−0.7
3	Tufts University Jumbos	4	9.64 school +0.38, home +0.35	Maddie Janzen / Lilly Ladd 3.07 Ella Hubbard / Dory Russell 2.82 10–5 Sophia Hubbard / Eloise Goedkoop 3.00 10–5 Ella Hubbard / Eloise Goedkoop 2.89 1–1 Sophia Hubbard / Dory Russell 2.93 1–1	67%	11–6 (65%)	−0.4
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	8.78 school +0.42	Lucy Meagher / Elyssa Franklin 3.20 Tavia Smith / Mackenzie Speece 2.94 Maren Matthews / Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino 2.19	49%	10–7 (59%)	+1.7
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	8.46 school −0.06	Lauren Russler / Kaile Olson 3.07 Rebecca Schill / Maggie Tripp 2.61 Kyra Phelan / Maizie Bartlett 2.75 6–5 Kyra Phelan / Mairéad Reitzel 2.90 3–2	44%	9–7 (56%)	+2.0
6	Harvard University Crimson	3	9.70 school +0.28	Zoey Ziskind / Peyton Hadfield 3.41 5–6 Kate Danielson / Amelie Zucker 3.24 5–6 Sophia Montgomery / Theresa Straw 2.76 5–4 Sophia Montgomery / Katherine Shin 2.75 2–5 Zoey Ziskind / Amelie Zucker 3.46 2–3 Kate Danielson / Jj Drummond 3.20 2–3	68%	7–9 (44%)	−3.9
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7	8.04 school +0.18	Brooke Barry / Christine Keedy Brown 2.75 Emma Wang / Alice Dunning 2.45 4–6 Karya Basaraner / Sophia Woodbury 2.67 3–5 Karya Basaraner / Tamsin Horne 2.66 3–5 Emma Wang / Layla Bursor 2.36 2–4	37%	6–10 (38%)	+0.1
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	9	6.37 school −0.09	Emaline Ouellette / Savannah Miner 1.84 Kytalin Hendrickson / Erin Little 2.81 Ariana Schwartz / Kaylee Good 1.76 4–8 Ariana Schwartz / Harper Kelley 1.77 0–4	12%	4–12 (25%)	+2.1
9	Northeastern University Huskies	8	6.71 school +0.22	Eva Ermlich / Nathalie Caudron 3.04 Lydia Frost / Kaelyn Holmes 1.89 Isabella Cho / Winter Vetrone 1.68 0–5 Gabrielle Ahitow / Kasia Piekielniak 1.31 1–3	21%	1–8 (11%)	−0.9
10	Fordham University Rams	10	5.89 school −0.06	Lauren Murray / Parker Laing 1.77 Anna Robertson / Samantha Hemans 1.54 Lizzie Cochran / Nora Donahue 2.61	12%	1–8 (11%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
8	University of Rhode Island	6.37	7.53	4–12	1.9	+1.16	1.9	9%
5	Bowdoin College	8.46	9.20	9–7	7.0	+0.74	1.1	18%
4	Roger Williams University	8.78	9.36	10–7	8.3	+0.57	0.7	24%
1	Yale University	10.39	10.45	13–3	12.9	+0.06	0.0	62%
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.04	8.09	6–10	5.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
10	Fordham University	5.89	5.83	1–8	1.0	−0.06	0.0	71%
3	Tufts University	9.64	9.50	11–6	11.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
2	Brown University	10.15	9.87	12–4	12.7	−0.28	0.1	79%
9	Northeastern University	6.71	5.65	1–8	1.9	−1.06	0.7	93%
6	Harvard University	9.70	8.26	7–9	10.9	−1.44	4.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sidney Moyer	Brown University	2.60	5.60	4–0	3.9	≥+3.00	0.2	86%
Ariana Schwartz	University of Rhode Island	1.76	2.92	4–12	1.9	+1.16	1.9	9%
Emaline Ouellette	University of Rhode Island	1.84	3.00	4–12	1.9	+1.16	1.9	9%
Kytalin Hendrickson	University of Rhode Island	2.81	3.97	4–12	1.9	+1.16	1.9	9%
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	3.07	3.81	9–7	7.0	+0.74	1.1	18%
Kyra Phelan	Bowdoin College	2.75	3.49	9–7	7.0	+0.74	1.1	18%
Rebecca Schill	Bowdoin College	2.61	3.35	9–7	7.0	+0.74	1.1	18%
Lucy Meagher	Roger Williams University	3.20	3.77	10–7	8.3	+0.57	0.7	24%
Tavia Smith	Roger Williams University	2.94	3.52	10–7	8.3	+0.57	0.7	24%
Maren Matthews	Roger Williams University	2.19	2.77	10–7	8.3	+0.57	0.7	24%
Carly Kieding	Yale University	3.29	3.36	13–3	12.9	+0.06	0.0	62%
Dorothy Mendelblatt	Yale University	3.52	3.58	13–3	12.9	+0.06	0.0	62%
Elle Sykes	Yale University	3.24	3.30	13–3	12.9	+0.06	0.0	62%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.75	2.80	6–10	5.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
Emma Wang	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.45	2.50	6–10	5.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
Karya Basaraner	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.67	2.72	6–10	5.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
Gabrielle Ahitow	Northeastern University	1.31	1.29	1–3	1.0	−0.03	0.0	76%
Lauren Murray	Fordham University	1.77	1.71	1–8	1.0	−0.06	0.0	71%
Anna Robertson	Fordham University	1.54	1.47	1–8	1.0	−0.06	0.0	71%
Lizzie Cochran	Fordham University	2.61	2.55	1–8	1.0	−0.06	0.0	71%
Ella Hubbard	Tufts University	2.82	2.67	11–6	11.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
Maddie Janzen	Tufts University	3.07	2.93	11–6	11.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
Sophia Hubbard	Tufts University	3.00	2.85	11–6	11.4	−0.14	0.0	71%
Katharine Doble	Brown University	3.39	3.09	11–4	11.7	−0.29	0.1	79%
Laura Hamilton	Brown University	3.52	3.21	11–4	11.7	−0.31	0.2	80%
Katherine Mcnamara	Brown University	3.09	2.78	10–4	10.7	−0.31	0.2	80%
Eva Ermlich	Northeastern University	3.04	1.98	1–8	1.9	−1.06	0.7	93%
Lydia Frost	Northeastern University	1.89	0.83	1–8	1.9	−1.06	0.7	93%
Zoey Ziskind	Harvard University	3.41	1.97	7–9	10.9	−1.44	4.1	>99%
Kate Danielson	Harvard University	3.24	1.79	7–9	10.9	−1.44	4.1	>99%
Sophia Montgomery	Harvard University	2.76	1.32	7–9	10.9	−1.44	4.1	>99%
Isabella Cho	Northeastern University	1.68	-1.32	0–5	0.9	≤−3.00	1.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
	1	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	75%
	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	31%	upset
	3	Harvard University	Northeastern University	95%
	4	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	97%
	5	Yale University	Fordham University	99%
	6	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	30%	upset
	7	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	24%	upset
	8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	9%	upset
	9	Northeastern University	Fordham University	65%
	10	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	98%
	11	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	72%
	12	Brown University	Tufts University	65%
	13	Bowdoin College	Fordham University	93%
	14	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	16%	upset
	15	Yale University	Northeastern University	97%
	16	Brown University	Harvard University	64%
	17	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	95%
	18	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	4%	upset
	19	Bowdoin College	Northeastern University	87%
	20	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	9%	upset
	21	Brown University	Fordham University	98%
	22	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	97%
	23	Roger Williams University	Northeastern University	87%
	24	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
	25	Yale University	Bowdoin College	88%
	26	Fordham University	University of Rhode Island	39%	upset
	27	Brown University	Northeastern University	94%
	28	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
	29	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
	30	Yale University	Tufts University	68%
	31	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	37%	upset
	32	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Fordham University	90%
	33	Bowdoin College	Brown University	12%	upset
	34	Tufts University	Harvard University	48%	upset
	35	Roger Williams University	Yale University	17%	upset
	36	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northeastern University	82%
	37	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	89%
	38	Tufts University	Fordham University	98%
	39	Roger Williams University	Brown University	17%	upset
	40	Yale University	Harvard University	67%
	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	42%	upset
	42	Tufts University	Northeastern University	94%
	43	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	92%
	44	Harvard University	Fordham University	98%
	45	Brown University	Yale University	50%	upset
	46	Yale University	Brown University	50%
	47	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	70%
	48	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	24%	upset
	49	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	16%	upset
	50	Brown University	Roger Williams University	83%
	51	Yale University	Bowdoin College	88%
	52	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	96%
	53	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
	54	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	59%
	55	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	97%
	56	Yale University	Harvard University	67%
	57	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
	58	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	89%
	59	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	29%	upset
	60	Brown University	Tufts University	65%
	61	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
	62	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	97%
	63	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	75%
	64	Yale University	Roger Williams University	83%
	65	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
	66	Tufts University	Harvard University	48%	upset
	67	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	98%
	68	Brown University	Bowdoin College	87%
	69	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	69%
	70	Yale University	Tufts University	68%
	71	Brown University	Harvard University	64%
	72	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	92%
	73	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	58%
3	74	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	70%

Round 0

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Jumbos	Hawks	Bears	Crimson	Engineers	Rams	Huskies	Rams
Yale University Bulldogs	13–3	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	12–4	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	10–6	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	10–6	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	9–7	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–9	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L
Northeastern University Huskies	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 3

	Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Hawks
	Tufts University Jumbos	1–0	✕	W
	Roger Williams University Hawks	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
2	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
3	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
6	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
7	Polar Bears	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
8	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
9	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
11	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
12	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
13	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
14	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
15	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
16	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
17	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
18	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
19	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
20	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
21	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
22	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
23	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
24	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
25	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
26	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
27	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
28	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
29	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
30	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
31	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
32	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
33	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
34	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
35	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
36	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
37	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
38	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
39	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
41	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
42	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
43	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
44	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
45	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
46	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
47	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
48	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
49	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
50	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
52	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
53	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
54	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
55	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
56	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
57	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6 DNF
58	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
59	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
60	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
61	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
62	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
63	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
66	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
67	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
68	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
69	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
70	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
71	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
72	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
73	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
74	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carly Kieding '29 Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 Elle Sykes '27	Sarah Moeder '26 Julia Miller '26 Clara Díaz Suárez '28 Ella Benedetto '29
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27 Sidney Moyer '27	Reese Corckran '28 Gabby Collins '28 Katherine Majette '27 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Michelle Kaneti '29
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ella Hubbard '26 Maddie Janzen '29 Sophia Hubbard '28	Dory Russell '28 Eloise Goedkoop '27 Lilly Ladd '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Lucy Meagher '27 Maren Matthews '26 Tavia Smith '27	Elyssa Franklin '26 Dawson Chambers-Tartaglino '27 Mackenzie Speece '28
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27	Mairéad Reitzel '28 Maizie Bartlett '27 Kaile Olson '27 Maggie Tripp '29
Harvard University	Crimson	Kate Danielson '28 Sophia Montgomery '25 Zoey Ziskind '27	Amelie Zucker '28 Jj Drummond '27 Theresa Straw '28 Katherine Shin '27 Peyton Hadfield '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Emma Wang '27 Karya Basaraner '28	Christine Keedy Brown '28 Alice Dunning '29 Layla Bursor '29 Tamsin Horne '28 Sophia Woodbury '28
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Ariana Schwartz '27 Emaline Ouellette '28 Kytalin Hendrickson '26	Kaylee Good '26 Harper Kelley '29 Savannah Miner '28 Erin Little '28
Northeastern University	Huskies	Eva Ermlich '26 Gabrielle Ahitow '28 Isabella Cho '27 Lydia Frost '29	Nathalie Caudron '29 Kasia Piekielniak '29 Winter Vetrone '28 Kaelyn Holmes '29
Fordham University	Rams	Anna Robertson '28 Lauren Murray '28 Lizzie Cochran '27	Samantha Hemans '27 Parker Laing '28 Nora Donahue '28

Conditions — 03/21/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 61% · Pressure 1011.4 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 49°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.2 kn

avg · max 10.4 kn

Gusts to 26.0 kn

From NNW (332°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1011.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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