Northeastern University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.23 (fleet 1.71) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–13 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 5–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 5–13 against 5.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Callahan Trophy | skipper | 1.37 | 0.97 | 3–6 | 3.8 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2026-03-21 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1–3 | 1.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2026-03-14 | Women's SNE Team Race | skipper | 1.14 | 1.35 | 1–4 | 0.9 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.0 | 2.11 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1 B Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.4 | 0.89 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2026 Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.9 | 1.31 |
| Stu Nelson @ Connecticut College 2026 | Skipper | C | 4 | 7.5 | 2.42 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.4 | 2.57 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's SNE Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.4 | 2.23 |
| NEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship -Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | 1.48 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.0 | 1.45 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.3 | 2.60 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Callahan Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Reece's Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.4 | -1.15 |
| Peak Foliage | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | -1.25 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 6.2 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | -0.09 |
| Callagy Ross Regatta | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.9 | -1.03 |
| BU Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.7 | -0.05 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 Saturday | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.6 | — |
| O’Toole Sunday | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 1.03 |
| O’Toole Saturday | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.2 | -0.30 |
| Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 1.02 |
| Central Series Tufts | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.1 | -1.38 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Terrier Invite | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.7 | 0.48 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 1.26 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.7 | -0.60 |
| Eagle Invite | Skipper | B | 1 | 18.0 | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 1.79 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
