Fall Foliage

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 5 6 11
2 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 8 7 15
3 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 15 5 20
4 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 9 20 29
5 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 22 17 39
6 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 25 16 41
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 18 26 44
8 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 18 28 46
9 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 26 23 49
10 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 23 29 52
11 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 36 25 61
12 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 32 35 67
13 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 37 36 73
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats111
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons222
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers333
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges444
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners555
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen101010
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers666
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds777
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers888
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats111111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies999
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts121212
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech131313

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats777
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons888
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers999
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges101010
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners111111
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen333
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers121212
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds131313
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers111
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats444
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies222
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts555
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech666

Conditions — 10/12/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1008.1 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.6 kn
avg  ·  max 13.3 kn
Gusts to 28.8 kn
From WNW (298°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1008.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 26 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at New Hampshire: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Hampshire by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at New Hampshire).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →