John O'Connell

Rating History

Singlehanded & Keelboat Ratings

DisciplineRating Rank RacesLast raced
Keelboat0.40unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active)5Fall 2024

Team Race Rating

Rating Rank vs fleet rating Record
0.71 (fleet 0.97) 319 of 328 +0.01 ± 0.17
about what the fleet rating predicts
as skipper 15–49 (23%)
SeasonRegattas Skipper W–LCrew W–L
Spring 202639–31—
Fall 202512–6—
Spring 202524–12—
0.50.60.70.8Spring 2025Fall 2025Spring 2026Alymers Team race (2025-04-13): rating 0.61, fleet rating alone 0.61, offset -0.00; record 4-4 in this boatThe Lane Trophy Team Race (2025-10-19): rating 0.67, fleet rating alone 0.65, offset +0.02; record 2-6 in this boatBrenton Cove Team Race (2026-03-21): rating 0.69, fleet rating alone 0.66, offset +0.03; record 7-11 in this boatJumbo Team Race (2026-03-28): rating 0.66, fleet rating alone 0.65, offset +0.01; record 0-14 in this boatAlymers Team race (2026-04-12): rating 0.66, fleet rating alone 0.65, offset +0.01; record 2-6 in this boatTeam race rating

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 6 graded regattas (64 matches) the record is 15–49 against 14.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.

DateRegattaRole Value Perf. RecordExp.
wins
Δ Surprise
(bits)
P(this good
or better)
2026-04-12Alymers Team raceskipper1.080.832–62.3−0.250.176%
2026-03-28Jumbo Team Raceskipper1.07-1.930–140.1≤−3.000.2>99%
2026-03-21Brenton Cove Team Raceskipper1.000.767–118.0−0.240.276%
2025-10-19The Lane Trophy Team Raceskipper1.003.012–61.3+2.010.943%
2025-04-13Alymers Team raceskipper0.881.974–42.7+1.091.022%
2025-04-05Mystic Lake Team Raceskipper0.78-2.220–80.1≤−3.000.1>99%

Regatta results

Regatta Role Div Races Avg Rating
Fall 2026 Team page Season
Nicholas Barnett Trophy Skipper A 6 10.8 0.71
Charles Invite Skipper A 10 7.6 1.31
Spring 2026 Team page Season
New England Dinghy Tournament Skipper A 9 10.8 -1.94
Jumbo Team Race Skipper TR 14 0% —
Icebreaker Fleet Race Skipper A 2 9.5 0.86
Central 4 FR Skipper A 4 5.5 1.86
Brenton Cove Team Race Skipper TR 18 39% —
Alymers Team race Skipper TR 8 25% —
Fall 2025 Team page Season
NEISA Fall Tournament Skipper A 10 5.3 -0.41
The Lane Trophy Team Race Skipper TR 10 40% —
The Hood Trophy Skipper A 4 15.8 0.46
Great Herring Pond Open Skipper A 7 6.3 0.93
The George Warren Smith Trophy 25 Skipper A 7 13.7 1.13
Charles Invite Skipper B 9 8.0 -1.31
2025 Nicholas Barnett Trophy Skipper B 8 10.8 0.35
Spring 2025 Team page Season
O’Toole Saturday Skipper A 5 5.2 2.27
Mystic Lake Team Race Skipper TR 8 0% —
ICSA Regional Teams Championship Skipper A 4 9.5 -0.43
Alymers Team race Skipper TR 8 50% —
Fall 2024 Team page Season
Richard Ross at Courageous Keelboat Skipper A 5 6.8 0.72
Protest Trophy Skipper A 4 7.2 -0.56
NEISA Fall Tournament Skipper B 14 3.9 1.85
The George Warren Smith Trophy 24 Skipper A 10 17.9 0.14
Fall Foliage Skipper B 3 1.7 3.46
Chris Loder Trophy Skipper B 4 3.2 2.33
Charles Invitational Skipper B 8 13.1 —
Callagy Ross Regatta Skipper B 8 15.1 —
Barnett Trophy Skipper A 7 10.1 0.38

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →