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Richard Ross at Courageous

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 13 13
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 15 15
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 19 19
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 24 24
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 31 31
6 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 4 33 33
7 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 34 34
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 40 40
9 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 41 41
10 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 47 47
11 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 3 48 48
12 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 1 56 56
13 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 61 61
14 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 2 63 63
15 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 80 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3 2 3 1 4 13
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 4 1 1 7 2 15
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 5 4 6 3 1 19
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 2 7 4 8 3 24
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 1 12 2 6 10 31
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 4 8 3 5 11 6 33
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 9 8 8 4 5 34
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 7 13 7 2 11 40
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 11 6 11 5 8 41
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 6 5 13 14 9 47
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 3 10 10 12 9 7 48
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 1 13 9 10 12 12 56
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 12 11 14 10 14 61
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 2 14 14 9 13 13 63
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 80
School Team Sailors
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 SkipperJohn O'Connell '28
CrewIsabel Walchli '28
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 SkipperBrett Tardie '25
CrewOlivia Colantuonio '28
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 3 SkipperWilfred Hynes '26
CrewMiguel Sanchez Navarro '27
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 4 SkipperAndrew Blagden '28
CrewGrace Kokkotos '27
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 SkipperElliott Mendenhall '25
CrewPiper Lyons '28
ReserveMarguerite Bowen '27
ReserveSam Whipple '25
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 SkipperJohn Cabell '26
CrewSam Whipple '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 SkipperAli McIntyre '27
CrewAnna Steffen '25
CrewMara Oancea '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 SkipperJames Brock '28
CrewDaniel van Heeckeren '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 SkipperCharles Case '26
CrewWilliam Salerno '25
CrewQuinn Brighton '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 SkipperKeller Morrison '25
CrewTheo Meyer '28
CrewPatience Gifford '27
ReserveJean-Luc Depardieu '27
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 SkipperLucas Wiatrowski '27
CrewMorgan Melo '27
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 SkipperGavin Tucker '26
Crewvarda kotlyarsky '28
ReserveDarin Franklin '10
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 1 SkipperJackson Harney '27
CrewOliver Roy '26
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 2 SkipperJason Dank '26
CrewBenjamin Conte '26

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  15 boats · 5 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1James Brock '28Brown University Bears 25/52.302.66+0.3699th → 99th0.327%2.6 / 4.0
2John Cabell '26Boston University Terriers 25/50.962.44+1.4972nd → 99th4.24%3.0 / 7.2
3Elliott Mendenhall '25Boston University Terriers 15/51.392.06+0.6788th → 99th1.019%3.8 / 6.1
4Ali McIntyre '27Brown University Bears 15/50.84u1.67+0.8467th → 94th1.616%4.8 / 7.4
5Charles Case '26Brown University Bears 35/51.390.71−0.6888th → 58th1.457%6.2 / 6.1
6Andrew Blagden '28Bentley University Falcons 45/50.221.05+0.8334th → 75th1.616%6.6 / 9.2
7John O'Connell '28Bentley University Falcons 15/50.581.12+0.5454th → 78th0.832%6.8 / 8.2
8Lucas Wiatrowski '27University of New Hampshire Wildcats 15/5-0.180.56+0.749th → 53rd1.322%8.0 / 10.0
9Keller Morrison '25Brown University Bears 45/51.380.49−0.8988th → 49th2.882%8.2 / 6.2
10Brett Tardie '25Bentley University Falcons 25/50.48-0.22−0.7149th → 8th1.366%9.4 / 8.5
11Wilfred Hynes '26Bentley University Falcons 35/50.270.42+0.1538th → 43rd0.162%9.6 / 8.9
12Jackson Harney '27Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 15/50.04-0.14−0.1818th → 10th0.174%11.2 / 9.5
13Gavin Tucker '26University of New Hampshire Wildcats 25/5-0.30-0.81−0.515th → 1st0.677%12.2 / 10.4
14Jason Dank '26Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 25/5-0.20-1.08−0.889th → 1st1.885%12.6 / 10.1

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From NNW (336°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1019.7 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at New Hampshire — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at New Hampshire in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Hampshire by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled fleet-race days at New Hampshire).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →