| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 7–1 |
| 3 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 6–2 |
| 5 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 2–6 |
| 8 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 2–6 |
| 9 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 2–6 |
| 10 |  |
Bentley University | Falcons | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 27,096 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 39 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.217 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.47 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 91% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston College | 9.58 | 12.58 | 7–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.9 | 11% |
| 2 | Roger Williams University | 9.71 | 10.29 | 7–1 | 6.5 | +0.57 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 5 | University of Rhode Island | 7.68 | 7.81 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 8 | Boston University | 5.79 | 5.77 | 2–6 | 2.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 6 | Bowdoin College | 6.95 | 6.83 | 3–4 | 3.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 3 | Brown University | 9.22 | 8.87 | 6–2 | 6.3 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 3 | Tufts University | 9.30 | 8.90 | 6–2 | 6.4 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 9 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 6.38 | 5.94 | 2–6 | 2.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 7 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 7.13 | 5.85 | 2–6 | 3.1 | −1.28 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 10 | Bentley University | 2.09 | -0.91 | 0–8 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lech | Boston College | 3.12 | 6.12 | 7–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.9 | 11% |
| Drew Mastovsky | Roger Williams University | 3.25 | 3.82 | 7–1 | 6.5 | +0.57 | 0.2 | 53% |
| Charles Gish | Brown University | 2.92 | 2.57 | 6–2 | 6.3 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Max Katz-Christy | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2.58 | 2.13 | 2–6 | 2.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 83% |
| David Vinogradov | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.23 | 0.95 | 2–6 | 3.1 | −1.28 | 0.9 | 96% |
| Richard Kalich | Boston University | 1.56 | -0.17 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −1.73 | 0.6 | 99% |
| John O'Connell | Bentley University | 0.78 | -2.22 | 0–8 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Andrew Blagden | Bentley University | 0.45 | -2.55 | 0–8 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Wilfred Hynes | Bentley University | 0.70 | -2.30 | 0–8 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Hawks | Bears | Jumbos | Rams | Bears | Bears | Terriers | Engineers | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 7–2 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | L | W | W | W | L |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 8–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 6–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 7–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 5–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 4–5 | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 2–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Bentley University Falcons | 1–8 | W | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Jumbos | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Engineers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Terriers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Hawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-3-6 |
| 32 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Polar Bears | def. | |
Eagles | ||
| 41 | |
Engineers | def. | |
Bears | ||
| 42 | |
Hawks | def. | |
Terriers | ||
| 43 | |
Jumbos | def. | |
Bears | ||
| 44 | |
Rams | def. | |
Polar Bears | ||
| 45 | |
Falcons | def. | |
Eagles | ||
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
