Tufts University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.53 (fleet 3.60) | 121 of 331 | −0.08 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 52–50 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 5 | 23–41 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 24–9 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 1 | 5–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (101 matches) the record is 52–49 against 54.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.20 | 1.35 | 1–5 | 1.9 | −1.85 | 1.1 | 99% |
| 2026-04-11 | Thompson Trophy | skipper | 3.07 | 0.07 | 0–15 | 3.5 | ≤−3.00 | 6.0 | >99% |
| 2026-03-28 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 3.10 | 2.24 | 15–7 | 17.2 | −0.86 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2026-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 3.13 | 3.51 | 7–13 | 5.9 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2025-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 2.34 | 6–2 | 6.4 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 2025-03-15 | Ivan Geiger Trophy 2025 | skipper | 2.60 | 3.76 | 8–2 | 5.8 | +1.16 | 1.7 | 12% |
| 2025-03-08 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 2.71 | 6–2 | 5.7 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2025-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.43 | 2.64 | 4–3 | 3.7 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2024-10-20 | Franklin Lane Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 5.23 | 5–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 55% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Oliver Keeves |  Santa Monica High School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
