| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 4–3 |
| 4 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 4–3 |
| 6 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 27 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.302 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.48 ± 0.35: an orderly event, more orderly than 93% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brown University Bears | 9.90 | 12.90 | 6–0 | 5.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 1 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 9.34 | 9.69 | 5–1 | 4.7 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 63% |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 8.39 | 8.64 | 4–3 | 3.7 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 8.34 | 8.54 | 4–3 | 3.7 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 6 | Yale University Bulldogs | 7.87 | 7.92 | 3–4 | 2.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 7 | Connecticut College Camels | 6.34 | 5.91 | 1–6 | 1.3 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 5 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 8.99 | 8.36 | 4–3 | 4.8 | −0.63 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 8 | University of Vermont Catamounts | 5.79 | 2.79 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibault Antonietti | Bowdoin College | 3.04 | 3.39 | 5–1 | 4.7 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 63% |
| Alex Adams | Yale University | 2.66 | 2.71 | 3–4 | 2.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Mathias Reimer | Yale University | 2.53 | 2.58 | 3–4 | 2.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Audrey Foley | Yale University | 2.28 | 2.33 | 3–4 | 2.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 65% |
| William Hurd | Connecticut College | 2.07 | 1.64 | 1–6 | 1.3 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Drew Mastovsky | Roger Williams University | 3.11 | 2.48 | 4–3 | 4.8 | −0.63 | 0.3 | 88% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Bears | 1 | 2 | Hawks | Bulldogs | Camels | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 6–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 6–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 8–6 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 8–6 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 4–3 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 3–4 | L | L | W | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Camels | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Camels | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
