Brown University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.19 (fleet 4.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 46–11 (81%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 6 | 46–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (57 matches) the record is 46–11 against 45.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-13 | Alymers Team race | skipper | 3.38 | 6.38 | 8–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| 2025-03-29 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 3.39 | 15–3 | 14.6 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2025-03-22 | BU Team Race | skipper | 3.14 | 6.14 | 8–0 | 6.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.6 | 15% |
| 2025-03-15 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 3.23 | 1.39 | 2–8 | 5.3 | −1.84 | 4.0 | >99% |
| 2025-03-08 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 3.09 | 6.09 | 7–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.4 | 17% |
| 2025-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.02 | 6.02 | 6–0 | 5.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 41% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Tyler Lamm |  Oxbridge Academy |
'24 |
| ISSA | Tyler Lamm |  Unregistered-SEISA |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
