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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 50 50
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 52 52
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 57 57
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 58 58
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 60 60
6 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 61 61
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 61 61
8 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 70 70
9 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 74 74
10 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 5 79 79
11 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 80 80
12 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 82 82
13 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 87 87
14 Brown University Brown University Bears 5 92 92
15 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 93 93
16 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 96 96
17 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 100 100
18 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 106 106
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 2 2 5 4 14 9 3 11 50 Jed Lory '27
Ethan Snyder '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 4 4 8 8 16 2 4 6 52 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26
Marin Soderberg '28
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 9 17 3 7 2 5 2 12 57 Jack Roman '26
Carter Sheehan '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 1 13 1 10 18 3 5 7 58 Luke Zylinski '26
Grace Austin '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 14 5 7 16 3 12 1 2 60 Grace Ivancich '28
Violet Martin '28
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 5 3 4 BKD 1 10 15 15 61 Max Sigel '26
Jane Lally '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 11 16 2 5 12 1 6 8 61 Tyler Lamm '28
Reese Corckran '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 7 9 13 13 8 8 9 3 70 Peter Mcgonagle '25
Austin White '27
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 12 11 11 1 4 13 18 4 74 Jack Crager '27
Dominique Spinola '26
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 5 16 6 6 2 9 14 13 13 79 Peter Cotoia '26
Reid Nelson '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 3 12 15 17 10 6 8 9 80 Julian Dahiya '28
Sasha Gordon '28
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 18 7 9 14 7 15 7 5 82 Christopher Chwalk '28
Emily Grevell '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 17 14 12 3 5 4 14 18 87 Owen Grainger '28
Miles Silverman '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 5 6 18 16 6 11 7 11 17 92 Gabby Collins '28
Phoebe Hackett '28
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 15 10 10 9 6 17 12 14 93 Jakub Fuja '27
Demetry Spinola '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 10 15 14 15 15 16 10 1 96 Caroline Odell '27
Olivia Spada '28
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 13 8 17 12 13 11 16 10 100 Adam Strobridge '26
Ella Gibson '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 8 1 18 11 17 18 17 16 106 Benjamin Reeser '28
Gabriella Fields '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 111111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 222222222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 333333333
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 444444444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 555555555
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 11111111111111111
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 21212121212121212
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 31313131313131313
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 41414141414141414
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 11515151515151515
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 21616161616161616
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 31717171717171717
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 41818181818181818
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 166666666
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 277777777
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 388888888
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 499999999
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 51010101010101010

Conditions — 09/07/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1010.5 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From S (181°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine6.5 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1010.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Brown: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.13 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.89 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →