Roger Williams University '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.21 (fleet 3.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–12 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 8–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 9–12 against 10.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | McMerrick | skipper | 2.10 | 1.43 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 88% |
| 2024-03-23 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.90 | 0.92 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −0.98 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 2024-03-03 | McMerrick Cup SUNDAY | skipper | 2.02 | -0.62 | 1–4 | 2.9 | −2.65 | 3.6 | >99% |
| 2024-03-02 | McMerrick Cup SATURDAY | skipper | 1.72 | 2.97 | 6–2 | 4.8 | +1.25 | 1.0 | 26% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.8 | 3.08 |
| Southern 5 Sunday | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.7 | 2.41 |
| Southern 5 Saturday | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.0 | 2.32 |
| O’Toole Saturday | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.6 | 4.73 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.3 | 2.53 |
| McMerrick | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.4 | 3.45 |
| BU Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.3 | 2.28 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.2 | 2.85 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | -0.04 |
| McMerrick Cup SUNDAY | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| McMerrick Cup SATURDAY | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
