Navigate

Southern 5 Sunday

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 15
2 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 26
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 37
4 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 59
5 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 60
6 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 60
7 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 68
8 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 83
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (55 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats111
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies555
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers222
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats666
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies333
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams777
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks444
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts888

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats999
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies131313
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers101010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats141414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies111111
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams151515
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks121212
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts161616

Conditions — 04/06/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1008.4 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 12.6 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1008.4 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rhode Island: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →