| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 3–1 |
| 4 |  |
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts 2 | 2–3 |
| 6 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 1–4 |
| 7 | |
University of Vermont | Catamounts 1 | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,398 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 17 matches (59%) with a log-loss of 0.693 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.86 ± 0.41: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 5% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Salve Regina University Seahawks | 4.92 | 8.05 | 3–1 | 0.9 | +3.13 | 4.7 | 2% |
| 1 | Brown University Bears | 8.67 | 11.67 | 5–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 64% |
| 4 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 4.03 | 6.14 | 2–3 | 0.5 | +2.11 | 2.6 | 7% |
| 2 | Dartmouth College Big Green | 7.48 | 7.96 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 66% |
| 5 | University of Vermont Catamounts 2 | 4.98 | 5.23 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 6 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 6.33 | 3.68 | 1–4 | 2.9 | −2.65 | 3.6 | >99% |
| 7 | University of Vermont Catamounts 1 | 6.04 | 3.04 | 0–5 | 2.6 | ≤−3.00 | 6.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Tullberg | Salve Regina University | 2.58 | 5.71 | 3–1 | 0.9 | +3.13 | 4.7 | 2% |
| Olivia Lowthian | Salve Regina University | 1.96 | 5.09 | 3–1 | 0.9 | +3.13 | 4.7 | 2% |
| Zach Earnshaw | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.00 | 3.11 | 2–3 | 0.5 | +2.11 | 2.6 | 7% |
| Andy Leshaw | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 1.40 | 3.26 | 1–2 | 0.3 | +1.86 | 1.1 | 27% |
| Ava Hurwitz | Dartmouth College | 1.73 | 2.22 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 66% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | University of Vermont | 2.08 | 2.33 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Jack Crager | Roger Williams University | 2.02 | -0.62 | 1–4 | 2.9 | −2.65 | 3.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Green | Seahawks | Buccaneers | 2 | Hawks | 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 4–1 | L | ✕ | – | W | W | W | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 3–1 | L | – | ✕ | – | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2–3 | L | L | – | ✕ | W | L | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts 2 | 2–8 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Vermont Catamounts 1 | 2–8 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Big Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Catamounts 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Catamounts 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Catamounts 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Big Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
