University of Vermont '24
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 47.67 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.118 rating points from 12 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.08 (fleet 1.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–63 (12%) as crew 7–21 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 1–19 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 4–14 | 7–21 |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 4–30 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (98 matches) the record is 16–82 against 20.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-30 | Callahan Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | 1.99 | 1–8 | 0.7 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2024-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 1.61 | -1.39 | 0–6 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2024-03-02 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | -1.31 | 0–3 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.43 | -1.57 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2023-04-01 | Women's Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.45 | 2.17 | 4–5 | 2.7 | +0.73 | 0.7 | 26% |
| 2023-03-25 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | crew | 2.02 | 0.70 | 2–14 | 5.0 | −1.32 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2023-03-11 | Salve Regina Team Race Invite | crew | 1.96 | 2.36 | 5–7 | 4.0 | +0.40 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2022-03-26 | Last Chance Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.33 | 0.31 | 2–6 | 3.7 | −1.02 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2022-03-12 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 1.28 | -1.72 | 0–5 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 0.93 | 0.44 | 2–19 | 3.0 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 83% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's New England Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 14.9 | 0.26 |
| Wick Trophy Womens event Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.2 | 2.40 |
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 16.8 | 0.50 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| McMerrick Cup SUNDAY | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Little Three | Crew | A | 4 | 1.5 | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Callahan Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.3 | 1.37 |
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.5 | 0.93 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.9 | 2.23 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.4 | 1.85 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.8 | 1.97 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 13.8 | 1.74 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championships Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.0 | 1.87 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Staake Trophy Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Salve Regina Team Race Invite | Crew | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.0 | 1.96 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.1 | 1.30 |
| Navy Women's Spring Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 14.4 | 0.72 |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 12% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.6 | 1.72 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | 0.72 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.7 | 2.15 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.0 | 0.87 |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.4 | 2.82 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.3 | 1.75 |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 10% | — |
| Last Chance Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.4 | 0.78 |
| Boston University Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.1 | 1.26 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.8 | 2.28 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A, B | 5 | 13.0 | 2.22 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.1 | 1.38 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 14.4 | 0.85 |
| Fairfield Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.7 | -1.43 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
