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Salve Regina Team Race Invite

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 9–3
2 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 9–3
3 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 7–5
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6–6
5 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 5–7
6 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4–8
7 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,442 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 42 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.660 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.54 ± 0.33: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Rhode Island
Rams 2		36.39
school −0.09		Kytalin Hendrickson / Dean Balcirak 2.06
Olin Guck / Eric Pohl
Tyler Nash / Zachary Severson 2.37		50%9–3 (75%)+3.0
2University of Rhode Island
Rams 1		18.37
school −0.09		Kerem Erkmen / Miles Bailey 3.16
Joshua Bartoszuk / Sadie Thomas 2.63
Miles Williams / Jack Honan 2.64		90%9–3 (75%)−1.7
3Salve Regina University
Seahawks		55.89
school −0.60, home +0.39		Nils Tullberg / Kate Johnson 2.25
Emil Tullberg / Shannon Gondoly 2.24
Olivia Lowthian / Caelan Haddock		38%7–5 (58%)+2.5
4Tufts University
Jumbos		27.16
school +0.13		Connor Rosow / Harry Kaya Prager 2.30 4–4
Shea Smith / Michael Salvatore 2.27 4–4
Matthew Wallace / Magdelaina Putnam 2.35 4–4
Connor Rosow / Magdelaina Putnam 2.37 2–2
Shea Smith / Lucy Belknap 2.33 2–2
Matthew Wallace / Margaret Klein 2.30 2–2		68%6–6 (50%)−2.2
5University of Vermont
Catamounts		65.72
school −0.11		Christian Cushman / Alice Thompson 2.20
Calvin Lamosse / Elizabeth Amelotte 1.96
Charles Morris / Alex Boni 1.53 2–4
Luke Quine / Alex Boni 1.72 3–3		33%5–7 (42%)+1.0
6Roger Williams University
Hawks		46.06
school +0.27		Luke Hosek / Ethan Snyder 1.93
Emmett Nevel / Ethan Burt 1.92
Drew Mastovsky / Peter Cotoia 1.82		42%4–8 (33%)−1.0
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy
Bears		75.51
school −0.07		Conneely Julia / Charlotte Mccarthy 1.69
Luke Zylinski / Sarah Krajewski
Bradley Whiteway / William Spada 0–6
Bradley Whiteway / Allison Nystrom 2–4		29%2–10 (17%)−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Rhode Island Rams 26.397.779–36.0+1.382.85%
3Salve Regina University Seahawks5.896.897–54.5+1.001.810%
5University of Vermont Catamounts5.726.125–74.0+0.400.337%
6Roger Williams University Hawks6.065.624–85.1−0.440.384%
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears5.514.752–103.5−0.770.891%
4Tufts University Jumbos7.166.246–68.2−0.921.596%
2University of Rhode Island Rams 18.377.279–310.7−1.101.597%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Nils TullbergSalve Regina University2.253.257–54.5+1.001.810%
Emil TullbergSalve Regina University2.243.247–54.5+1.001.810%
Olivia LowthianSalve Regina University1.352.357–54.5+1.001.810%
Charles MorrisUniversity of Vermont1.531.732–41.8+0.200.059%
Drew MastovskyRoger Williams University1.821.384–85.1−0.440.384%
Conneely JuliaU. S. Coast Guard Academy1.690.922–103.5−0.770.891%
Luke ZylinskiU. S. Coast Guard Academy1.811.052–103.5−0.770.891%
Bradley WhitewayU. S. Coast Guard Academy1.670.912–103.5−0.770.891%
Connor RosowTufts University2.301.386–68.2−0.921.596%
Shea SmithTufts University2.271.356–68.2−0.921.596%
Kerem ErkmenUniversity of Rhode Island3.162.069–310.7−1.101.597%
Joshua BartoszukUniversity of Rhode Island2.631.549–310.7−1.101.597%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Tufts University JumbosSalve Regina University Seahawks81%
12University of Rhode Island Rams 1Roger Williams University Hawks92%
13University of Rhode Island Rams 2U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears75%
14University of Vermont CatamountsSalve Regina University Seahawks46%upset
15Roger Williams University HawksTufts University Jumbos25%upset
16University of Rhode Island Rams 1U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears96%
17University of Rhode Island Rams 2University of Vermont Catamounts62%
18Roger Williams University HawksSalve Regina University Seahawks55%
19Tufts University JumbosU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears85%
110University of Rhode Island Rams 2University of Rhode Island Rams 111%upset
111Roger Williams University HawksUniversity of Vermont Catamounts61%
112Salve Regina University SeahawksU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears60%
113University of Rhode Island Rams 2Tufts University Jumbos31%upset
114University of Rhode Island Rams 1University of Vermont Catamounts94%
115U. S. Coast Guard Academy BearsRoger Williams University Hawks36%upset
116Salve Regina University SeahawksUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 238%upset
117University of Rhode Island Rams 1Tufts University Jumbos78%
118University of Vermont CatamountsU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears56%
119University of Rhode Island Rams 2Roger Williams University Hawks58%
120Salve Regina University SeahawksUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 18%upset
121Tufts University JumbosUniversity of Vermont Catamounts79%
222Salve Regina University SeahawksTufts University Jumbos22%upset
223University of Rhode Island Rams 1Roger Williams University Hawks91%
224University of Rhode Island Rams 2U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears70%
225Salve Regina University SeahawksUniversity of Vermont Catamounts58%
226Tufts University JumbosRoger Williams University Hawks75%
227University of Rhode Island Rams 1U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears94%
228University of Vermont CatamountsUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 235%upset
229Roger Williams University HawksSalve Regina University Seahawks53%
230Tufts University JumbosU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears83%
231University of Rhode Island Rams 2University of Rhode Island Rams 113%upset
232University of Vermont CatamountsRoger Williams University Hawks38%upset
233Salve Regina University SeahawksU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears58%
234University of Rhode Island Rams 2Tufts University Jumbos32%upset
235University of Rhode Island Rams 1University of Vermont Catamounts94%
236U. S. Coast Guard Academy BearsRoger Williams University Hawks39%upset
237Salve Regina University SeahawksUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 238%upset
238University of Rhode Island Rams 1Tufts University Jumbos77%
239University of Vermont CatamountsU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears53%
240University of Rhode Island Rams 2Roger Williams University Hawks59%
241University of Rhode Island Rams 1Salve Regina University Seahawks91%
242Tufts University JumbosUniversity of Vermont Catamounts80%

Round 1

TeamRec.21SeahawksJumbosCatamountsHawksBears
University of Rhode Island Rams 29–3✕✕LWWWW
University of Rhode Island Rams 19–3✕✕LWWWW
Salve Regina University Seahawks3–3WW✕LLLW
Tufts University Jumbos3–3LLW✕WLW
University of Vermont Catamounts2–4LLWL✕LW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–3LLWWW✕L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears1–5LLLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.21SeahawksJumbosCatamountsHawksBears
University of Rhode Island Rams 29–3✕✕WWWWW
University of Rhode Island Rams 19–3✕✕WWWWW
Salve Regina University Seahawks4–2LL✕WWLW
Tufts University Jumbos3–3LLL✕WWW
University of Vermont Catamounts3–3LLLL✕WW
Roger Williams University Hawks1–5LLWLL✕L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears1–5LLLLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
2 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
3 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-2-6 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-5
4 University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-4-6
5 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
6 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-2-3 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4-5-6
7 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
8 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
9 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
10 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-3-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1 2-4-5
11 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-5
12 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-6 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-4-5
13 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
14 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
15 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
16 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2 2-5-6
17 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
18 University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
19 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
20 Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-5-6
21 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
22 Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
23 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-5-6
24 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-3-5 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-4-6
25 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
26 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
27 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-2-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-5-6
28 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2 3-4-5
29 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
30 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
31 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-5-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1 2-3-4 DSQ,DSQ,DSQ
32 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
33 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-3-6 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-4-5
34 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
35 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
36 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
37 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2 3-5-6
38 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-5-6
39 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-5-6
40 University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1-3-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-4-5
41 University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
42 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6

Conditions — 03/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 90%  ·  Pressure 1007.0 hPa

Temperature

37°F
↑ 39°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 27°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.5 kn
avg  ·  max 16.9 kn
Gusts to 29.4 kn
From NNE (24°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1007.0 hPa Rain0.18 in Snow0.03 in

What this breeze does at Salve Regina — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Salve Regina in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Salve Regina by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (43 labelled fleet-race days at Salve Regina).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →