Salve Regina University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 (fleet 3.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–51 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 17–29 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 11–22 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (79 matches) the record is 28–51 against 28.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-25 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.42 | 1.44 | 2–18 | 4.3 | −0.98 | 1.5 | 96% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.30 | 3.80 | 8–6 | 4.5 | +1.50 | 3.8 | 2% |
| 2023-03-11 | Salve Regina Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.25 | 3.25 | 7–5 | 4.5 | +1.00 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.24 | 3.38 | 5–7 | 2.8 | +1.13 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2022-04-02 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 1.91 | 0.21 | 6–15 | 12.1 | −1.69 | 7.6 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunday Salve Regina Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.9 | 4.92 |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 10% | — |
| Southern 5 Fleet Race / Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| Salve Regina Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.8 | 3.34 |
| Open New England Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.5 | 3.39 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 2.29 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 2.89 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Alymers Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.4 | 1.67 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.0 | 3.16 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 14.1 | 2.28 |
| Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 3.61 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | 3.06 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 1.89 |
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.8 | 2.95 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.4 | 2.97 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 3.02 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.3 | 2.69 |
| Central Series Four | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 3.71 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.6 | 3.37 |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 11.2 | 2.21 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 2.62 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.9 | 2.03 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 8.3 | 2.85 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.3 | 3.09 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.0 | 3.68 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 12 | 10.6 | 2.27 |
| The 80th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.9 | 2.98 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.4 | 2.51 |
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.9 | 0.81 |
| Coed New England Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.8 | -0.10 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts September Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.0 | 1.15 |
| Sacred Heart Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 1.44 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 1.72 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.3 | 2.43 |
| Fairfield Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.3 | 2.81 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
