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Jumbo Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 18–3
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 15–6
3 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 8–13
4 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 6–15
5 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 5–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,727 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 52 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.564 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.34 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears		27.41
school +0.23		William George / Charlotte Costikyan 2.31
Mason Stang / Sierra Bornheim
Leyton Borcherding / Olivia Miller 2.48		58%18–3 (86%)+5.8
2Tufts University
Jumbos		18.57
school +0.13, home +0.33		Patrick Mulcahy / Cali Salinas 2.58
John Eastman / Maisie Macgillivray
Connor Sheridan / Harper Mckerrow 2.78		86%15–6 (71%)−3.1
3Connecticut College
Camels		55.12
school +0.34		Charles Bresnahan / Ruth Reischmann 1.43
Ryan Mckinney / Renee Smith 1.83
Wade Anthony / Clifton Carragher 1.37		22%8–13 (38%)+3.4
4Salve Regina University
Seahawks		36.59
school −0.40		Alex Bowdler / Frances Donahoe 2.44
Nils Tullberg / Hannah Mailey
Peter Cronin / Kate Johnson		58%6–15 (29%)−6.1
5Maine Maritime Academy
Mariners		45.24
school +0.55		Luke Healy / Tristan Walker 1.31
Olivia Mitchell / Robert Jacobs 1.57
Zachary York / Ella Beauregard		25%5–15 (25%)+0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Brown University7.419.4118–312.2+1.997.9<1%
3Connecticut College5.126.098–134.6+0.972.55%
5Maine Maritime Academy5.245.255–155.0+0.010.060%
2Tufts University8.577.5615–618.1−1.012.498%
4Salve Regina University6.594.906–1512.1−1.697.6>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
William GeorgeBrown University2.314.3018–312.2+1.997.9<1%
Charles BresnahanConnecticut College1.432.408–134.6+0.972.55%
Ryan MckinneyConnecticut College1.832.808–134.6+0.972.55%
Wade AnthonyConnecticut College1.372.348–134.6+0.972.55%
Patrick MulcahyTufts University2.581.5815–618.1−1.012.498%
Alex BowdlerSalve Regina University2.440.746–1512.1−1.697.6>99%
Nils TullbergSalve Regina University1.910.216–1512.1−1.697.6>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Brown UniversityConnecticut College90%
12Salve Regina UniversityMaine Maritime Academy76%
13Tufts UniversityConnecticut College97%
14Brown UniversityMaine Maritime Academy89%
15Tufts UniversityBrown University78%
16Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University21%upset
17Tufts UniversityMaine Maritime Academy97%
18Brown UniversitySalve Regina University71%
19Tufts UniversitySalve Regina University89%
110Connecticut CollegeMaine Maritime Academy46%upset
211Tufts UniversityBrown University77%
212Maine Maritime AcademyConnecticut College54%
213Brown UniversitySalve Regina University70%
214Tufts UniversityConnecticut College97%
215Tufts UniversitySalve Regina University88%
216Brown UniversityMaine Maritime Academy90%
217Salve Regina UniversityConnecticut College81%
218Tufts UniversityMaine Maritime Academy97%
219Salve Regina UniversityMaine Maritime Academy79%
220Brown UniversityConnecticut College91%
321Tufts UniversitySalve Regina University88%
322Brown UniversityConnecticut College91%
323Tufts UniversityMaine Maritime Academy97%
324Brown UniversitySalve Regina University69%
325Maine Maritime AcademySalve Regina University20%upset
326Tufts UniversityConnecticut College97%
327Brown UniversityMaine Maritime Academy90%
328Salve Regina UniversityConnecticut College82%
329Connecticut CollegeMaine Maritime Academy47%upset
330Brown UniversityTufts University25%upset
431Salve Regina UniversityMaine Maritime Academy80%
432Brown UniversityTufts University25%upset
433Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University18%upset
434Tufts UniversityMaine Maritime Academy96%
435Connecticut CollegeMaine Maritime Academy47%upset
436Brown UniversitySalve Regina University69%
437Tufts UniversityConnecticut College97%
438Brown UniversityMaine Maritime Academy90%
439Brown UniversityConnecticut College91%
440Tufts UniversitySalve Regina University87%
541Brown UniversityTufts University25%upset
542Maine Maritime AcademyConnecticut College53%
543Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University18%upset
544Salve Regina UniversityMaine Maritime Academy80%
645Tufts UniversityBrown University75%
646Maine Maritime AcademyConnecticut College52%
647Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University18%upset
648Maine Maritime AcademySalve Regina University20%upset
749Brown UniversityTufts University25%upset
750Connecticut CollegeSalve Regina University18%upset
851Brown UniversityTufts University25%upset
952Brown UniversityTufts University25%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsJumbosCamelsSeahawksMariners
Brown University Bears3–1✕LWWW
Tufts University Jumbos4–0W✕WWW
Connecticut College Camels2–2LL✕WW
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–3LLL✕W
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsJumbosCamelsSeahawksMariners
Brown University Bears3–1✕LWWW
Tufts University Jumbos4–0W✕WWW
Connecticut College Camels0–4LL✕LL
Salve Regina University Seahawks2–2LLW✕W
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners1–3LLWL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BearsJumbosCamelsSeahawksMariners
Brown University Bears4–0✕WWWW
Tufts University Jumbos3–1L✕WWW
Connecticut College Camels1–3LL✕LW
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–3LLW✕L
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners1–3LLLW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BearsJumbosCamelsSeahawksMariners
Brown University Bears4–0✕WWWW
Tufts University Jumbos3–1L✕WWW
Connecticut College Camels2–2LL✕WW
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–3LLL✕W
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners0–4LLLL✕

Round 5

TeamRec.BearsJumbosCamelsSeahawksMariners
Brown University Bears1–0✕W–––
Tufts University Jumbos0–1L✕–––
Connecticut College Camels1–1––✕WL
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–1––L✕W
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners1–1––WL✕

Round 6

TeamRec.BearsJumbosCamelsSeahawksMariners
Brown University Bears0–1✕L–––
Tufts University Jumbos1–0W✕–––
Connecticut College Camels1–1––✕WL
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–2––L✕L
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners2–0––WW✕

Round 7

TeamRec.BearsJumbosCamelsSeahawks
Brown University Bears1–0✕W––
Tufts University Jumbos0–1L✕––
Connecticut College Camels1–0––✕W
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–1––L✕

Round 8

TeamRec.BearsJumbos
Brown University Bears1–0✕W
Tufts University Jumbos0–1L✕

Round 9

TeamRec.BearsJumbos
Brown University Bears1–0✕W
Tufts University Jumbos0–1L✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
2 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-3 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 4-5-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-5-6
4 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
5 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
6 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-4-6
7 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 4-5-6
8 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
9 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
10 Connecticut College Camels 2-3-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-5-6
11 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
12 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
13 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6 DNF
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
15 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
16 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
17 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
18 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-5-6
19 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-6
20 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
21 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
22 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-5-6
23 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 4-5-6
24 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-3-6
25 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
26 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-4-6
27 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2-4-5
28 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
29 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-6 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2-4-5
30 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
31 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-6 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-5
32 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-5
33 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
34 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2-3-6
35 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-5 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2-4-6
36 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
37 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
38 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-4-5
39 Brown University Bears 3-5-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-2-4 DSQ,DSQ,DSQ,DSQ
40 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
41 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
42 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
43 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
44 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-2-4 def. Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3-5-6
45 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
46 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
47 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
48 Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
49 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
50 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
51 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-6
52 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6

Conditions — 04/02/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 39%  ·  Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.6 kn
avg  ·  max 13.0 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1013.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →