Connecticut College '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.03 (fleet 2.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.09 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–89 (23%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 6 | 13–60 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 5–5 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 9–24 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (114 matches) the record is 25–89 against 18.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Thompson Trophy Camel | skipper | 2.45 | -0.55 | 0–21 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| 2024-04-06 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle | skipper | 2.41 | -0.59 | 0–10 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2024-03-30 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.34 | 3.44 | 7–5 | 5.1 | +1.10 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 2024-03-16 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 2.22 | 3.07 | 2–16 | 0.9 | +0.85 | 0.7 | 24% |
| 2024-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.20 | 1.52 | 1–6 | 1.3 | −0.68 | 0.1 | 93% |
| 2024-03-02 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.05 | 3.21 | 3–2 | 1.8 | +1.16 | 1.0 | 24% |
| 2023-03-05 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 1.96 | 2.62 | 3–5 | 1.9 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 2022-04-02 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 1.83 | 2.80 | 8–13 | 4.6 | +0.97 | 2.5 | 5% |
| 2022-03-05 | Hap Moore | skipper | 1.61 | 1.83 | 1–11 | 0.8 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy Camel | Skipper | TR | 21 | 0% | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Southern NE Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| NEISA Open Dinghy Championship/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.7 | 2.87 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 16.0 | 1.88 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 8.3 | 2.23 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 15.3 | 2.21 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 16.4 | 1.14 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 19.0 | 1.37 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.9 | 2.65 |
| The 82nd Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.6 | 2.97 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 19% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.0 | 2.47 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 2.05 |
| CC Invite Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.0 | — |
| 31st Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.5 | 1.51 |
| 2022 Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 7.1 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 1.17 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Hap Moore | Skipper | TR | 16 | 6% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.2 | 1.67 |
| Sister Ester | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.0 | 1.77 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.3 | 2.20 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.5 | 0.71 |
| Boston University Invite | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.7 | 1.28 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 2.72 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.9 | 1.66 |
| Harman Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 3.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
