Southern NE Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/16/2024
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	15–3
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	14–4
3	Boston College	Eagles	12–6
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–9
5	University of Rhode Island	Rams	7–11
6	Brown University	Bears	4–13
7	Connecticut College	Camels	2–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,767 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 49 of 62 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.469 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.03 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	11.21 school +0.29	Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 3.82 Kyle Pfrang / Julia O'Connor 3.54 Aidan Hoogland / Michaela Odonnell 3.58 10–2 Aidan Hoogland / Jed Lory 3.48 5–1	83%	15–3 (83%)	+0.0
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2	10.45	Colman Schofield / Lauren O'Neill 3.76 Daniel Unangst / Charles Pohl 3.38 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.28	68%	14–4 (78%)	+1.8
3	Boston College Eagles	3	10.06 school +0.25	Peter Joslin / Sara Schumann 3.11 Michael Kirkman / Lily Ornstein 3.17 Peter Busch / Lourdes Gallo 3.50	59%	12–6 (67%)	+1.3
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4	9.81 school +0.06	Maks Groom / Wendy Wu 3.26 Sam Bruce / Jemma Schroder 3.54 6–9 Julius Heitkoetter / Yitian Zhu 2.96 3–8 Matthew Elliott / Yitian Zhu 2.88 5–1 Sam Bruce / Nicholas Abate 3.55 2–0	53%	8–9 (47%)	−1.0
5	University of Rhode Island Rams	6	9.06 school −0.09	Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 3.45 Henry Lee / Eric Pohl 2.74 Tyler Nash / Sadie Thomas 2.93	37%	7–11 (39%)	+0.4
6	Brown University Bears	5	9.38 school +0.25	Leyton Borcherding / Menasha Leport 3.16 Mason Stang / Janelle Li 2.94 Blake Behrens / Catherine Morrissette 3.01	44%	4–13 (24%)	−3.5
7	Connecticut College Camels	7	6.76 school +0.24, home +0.40	Ryan Mckinney / Vivian Smith 2.22 2–13 Charles Bresnahan / Cecilia Bohan 1.81 2–13 Wade Anthony / Renee Smith 2.29 2–7 Andrew Powers / Andrew Selian 1.70 0–6 Ryan Mckinney / Cecilia Bohan 2.27 0–3 Charles Bresnahan / Tatem Gee 1.65 0–3 Wade Anthony / Andrew Selian 2.15 0–3	5%	2–16 (11%)	+1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Connecticut College	6.76	7.61	2–16	0.9	+0.85	0.7	24%
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.45	11.06	14–4	12.2	+0.61	0.7	24%
3	Boston College	10.06	10.46	12–6	10.7	+0.40	0.4	33%
5	University of Rhode Island	9.06	9.18	7–11	6.6	+0.12	0.0	52%
1	Roger Williams University	11.21	11.21	15–3	15.0	−0.00	0.0	65%
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.81	9.48	8–9	9.0	−0.33	0.2	80%
6	Brown University	9.38	8.03	4–13	7.5	−1.36	3.2	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Wade Anthony	Connecticut College	2.29	3.29	2–10	0.8	+1.00	0.9	20%
Ryan Mckinney	Connecticut College	2.22	3.07	2–16	0.9	+0.85	0.7	24%
Charles Bresnahan	Connecticut College	1.81	2.66	2–16	0.9	+0.85	0.7	24%
Peter Joslin	Boston College	3.11	3.52	12–6	10.7	+0.40	0.4	33%
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	3.45	3.57	7–11	6.6	+0.12	0.0	52%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.58	3.58	15–3	15.0	−0.00	0.0	65%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	3.82	3.82	15–3	15.0	−0.00	0.0	65%
Andrew Powers	Connecticut College	1.70	-1.30	0–6	0.1	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	94%
1	2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	60%
1	3	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	90%
1	4	Brown University	Connecticut College	92%
1	5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	65%
1	6	University of Rhode Island	Boston College	27%	upset
1	7	Roger Williams University	Brown University	85%
1	8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	98%
1	9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	67%
1	10	Roger Williams University	Boston College	77%
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	74%
1	12	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	89%
1	13	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
1	14	Boston College	Brown University	66%
1	15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	80%
1	16	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	99%
1	17	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	55%
1	18	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	42%	upset
1	19	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	20	Boston College	Connecticut College	97%
1	21	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	61%
2	22	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	94%
2	23	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	40%	upset
2	24	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	90%
2	25	Connecticut College	Brown University	8%	upset
2	26	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	65%
2	27	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	73%
2	28	Brown University	Roger Williams University	15%	upset
2	29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	98%
2	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	67%
2	31	Roger Williams University	Boston College	77%
2	32	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	74%
2	33	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	89%
2	34	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
2	35	Boston College	Brown University	66%
2	36	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	80%
2	37	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	99%
2	38	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
2	39	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	42%	upset
2	40	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	31%	upset
2	41	Boston College	Connecticut College	97%
2	42	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	61%
3	43	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	94%
3	44	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	40%	upset
3	45	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	90%
3	46	Brown University	Connecticut College	92%
3	47	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	65%
3	48	University of Rhode Island	Boston College	27%	upset
3	49	Roger Williams University	Brown University	85%
3	50	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	97%
3	51	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	33%	upset
3	52	Boston College	Roger Williams University	24%	upset
3	53	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	74%
3	54	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	11%	upset
3	55	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
3	56	Boston College	Brown University	66%
3	57	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	80%
3	58	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	99%
3	59	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	44%	upset
3	60	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	58%
3	61	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
3	62	Boston College	Connecticut College	97%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	Eagles	Engineers	Rams	Bears	Camels
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	Eagles	Engineers	Rams	Bears	Camels
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–2	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–5	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Connecticut College Camels	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	Eagles	Engineers	Rams	Bears	Camels
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–2	W	W	✕	L	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–3	L	L	W	✕	L	–	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–4	L	L	W	W	✕	L	L
Brown University Bears	2–3	L	L	L	–	W	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	1–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
2	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
3	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
4	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
5	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
6	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
7	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
8	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
9	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
10	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
11	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
12	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
13	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
14	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
15	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
16	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
17	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
18	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
19	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
21	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
22	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
23	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
24	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
25	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
26	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
27	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
28	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
29	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
30	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
31	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
32	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
33	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
34	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
35	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
37	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
38	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
39	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
41	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
42	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
43	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
44	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
45	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
47	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
48	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
49	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
50	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
51	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
52	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
53	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
54	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
55	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
56	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
57	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
58	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
59	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
60	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
61	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
62	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Carlos De Castro '26 Kyle Pfrang '26	Jed Lory '27 Michaela Odonnell '24 Carly Kiss '25 Julia O'Connor '24
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Nicholas Reeser '25	Lauren O'Neill '24 Charles Pohl '26 Daniel Neville '25
Boston College	Eagles	Michael Kirkman '25 Peter Busch '26 Peter Joslin '26	Lily Ornstein '26 Lourdes Gallo '24 Sara Schumann '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Maks Groom '24 Matthew Elliott '24 Sam Bruce '24	Yitian Zhu '25 Wendy Wu '23 Jemma Schroder '24 Nicholas Abate '25
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Henry Lee '24 Kerem Erkmen '25 Tyler Nash '26	Eric Pohl '28 Abbie Chipps '25 Sadie Thomas '25
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Leyton Borcherding '25 Mason Stang '25	Catherine Morrissette '24 Menasha Leport '25 Janelle Li '25
Connecticut College	Camels	Andrew Powers '24 Charles Bresnahan '24 Ryan Mckinney '24 Wade Anthony '24	Andrew Selian '27 Cecilia Bohan '24 Tatem Gee '27 Vivian Smith '27 Renee Smith '24

Conditions — 03/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 68% · Pressure 1009.4 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 10.4 kn

Gusts to 22.0 kn

From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1009.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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