Massachusetts Institute of Technology '25
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 86.21 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.102 rating points from 76 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 4.03 | 92.77 | 84.38 | 3 of 16 | 10 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 3.87 | 89.18 | 73.08 | 4 of 13 | 10 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.54 (fleet 3.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.15 ± 0.14 better at team racing than the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 122–151 (45%) as crew 18–11 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 6 | 45–46 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 8 | 48–69 | 6–3 |
| Spring 2023 | 5 | 29–36 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | — | 4–1 |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | — | 8–7 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 23 graded regattas (301 matches) the record is 139–162 against 121.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+18.0). 5 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 21 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Thompson Trophy Camel | skipper | 3.18 | 3.28 | 7–11 | 6.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2025-04-05 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.14 | 3.06 | 5–13 | 5.2 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2025-03-29 | 2025 Marchiando Trophy-Grey Regatta | skipper | 3.09 | 3.31 | 9–12 | 8.1 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 42% |
| 2025-03-22 | 2025 Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.83 | 5.83 | 15–0 | 13.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 25% |
| 2025-03-15 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 3.03 | 3.17 | 6–6 | 5.7 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2025-03-01 | Liam O'Keefe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.93 | 4.05 | 3–4 | 1.6 | +1.12 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 2024-04-25 | ICSA Open Team Racing National Championship | skipper | 2.97 | 3.07 | 5–10 | 4.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2024-04-13 | Thompson Trophy Camel | skipper | 3.08 | 2.82 | 8–13 | 8.9 | −0.26 | 0.2 | 77% |
| 2024-04-06 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle | skipper | 2.98 | 3.70 | 8–11 | 5.3 | +0.73 | 1.4 | 12% |
| 2024-04-06 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle | crew | 2.98 | 4.31 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.33 | 0.9 | 27% |
| 2024-03-30 | The 41st Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 2.98 | 2.88 | 7–11 | 7.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2024-03-23 | 63rd Jan Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.06 | 2.55 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.50 | 0.1 | 85% |
| 2024-03-23 | 63rd Jan Friis Team Race | crew | 3.06 | 4.84 | 3–2 | 1.4 | +1.78 | 2.2 | 9% |
| 2024-03-16 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 2.42 | 3–8 | 4.2 | −0.54 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2024-03-09 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.94 | 3.12 | 9–8 | 8.6 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2024-03-02 | Sharpe Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 4.86 | 7–5 | 2.7 | +2.07 | 6.8 | <1% |
| 2023-04-01 | The 40th Grey Lynne Marchiando Team Races | skipper | 2.76 | 3.11 | 7–7 | 6.1 | +0.35 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jan Friis Team Race | skipper | 2.73 | 2.35 | 5–11 | 6.0 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2023-03-18 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 2.65 | 3.27 | 8–6 | 6.2 | +0.62 | 0.8 | 22% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 2.86 | 8–7 | 7.5 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2023-03-05 | Sharpe Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 2.40 | 1–5 | 1.1 | −0.23 | 0.0 | 79% |
| 2022-03-12 | The Wood Trophy | crew | 3.27 | 4.57 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +1.30 | 0.5 | 47% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | crew | 2.12 | 3.40 | 8–7 | 4.0 | +1.28 | 3.9 | 2% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Julius Heitkoetter |  Lake Travis High School |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
