ICSA Open Team Racing National Championship

HostHarvard/MIT
Date04/25/2024
TypeNational Championship Finals
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	18–4
2	Harvard University	Crimson	0–0
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–7
4	Brown University	Bears	14–8
5	Stanford University	Cardinal	13–9
6	Dartmouth College	Big Green	12–10
6	Georgetown University	Hoyas	12–10
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	9–13
9	College of Charleston	Cougars	7–8
10	Boston College	Eagles	6–9
11	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	6–9
12	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–9
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5–10
14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	4–11
15	Tulane University	Green Wave	3–12
16	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 24,699 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 113 of 151 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.499 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.19: a typical event, more orderly than 62% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	12.08 school +0.36	Aidan Hoogland / Michaela Odonnell 3.86 Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 4.08 Kyle Pfrang / Claire Buckley 3.77	69%	18–4 (82%)	+2.7
2	Harvard University Crimson	1	12.54 school +0.20	Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.21 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Marbella Marlo 4.14 Mitchell Callahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.98	78%	18–4 (82%)	+0.8
3	Yale University Bulldogs	2	12.23 school +0.30	Jack Egan / Elle Sykes 4.04 Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 3.94 13–7 Teddy Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 3.96 13–7 Morgan Pinckney / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.57 2–0 Teddy Nicolosi / Ashley Highland 4.06 2–0	72%	15–7 (68%)	−0.9
4	Brown University Bears	5	11.70 school +0.29	Liam O'Keefe / Savannah Young 3.85 Connor Nelson / Vera Allen 3.79 Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.79 13–8 Leyton Borcherding / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.16 1–0	62%	14–8 (64%)	+0.4
5	Stanford University Cardinal	4	11.98 school +0.34	Michelle Lahrkamp / Ellie Harned 3.81 Thomas Sitzmann / Alice Schmid 3.93 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.89	67%	13–9 (59%)	−1.8
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	8	11.05 school +0.29	Robert Bragg / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.80 Maddie Hawkins / Lilly Baker 3.64 James Paul / Reese Bragg 3.29 11–10 Ryan Satterberg / Reese Bragg 3.41 1–0	47%	12–10 (55%)	+1.8
6	Georgetown University Hoyas	10	10.96 school +0.34	Mariner Fagan / Emily Panarella 3.81 Mateo Di Blasi / Addi Harris 3.42 Enzo Menditto / Spencer Kriegstein 3.35 12–9 Diego Escobar / Caro Gaston 3.42 1–2	45%	13–11 (54%)	+2.2
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	10.99 school +0.11	Colman Schofield / Lauren O'Neill 3.88 Daniel Unangst / Charles Pohl 3.53 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.46	46%	11–13 (46%)	+0.0
9	College of Charleston Cougars	11	10.49 school +0.40	Noah Zittrer / Lucy Klempen 3.48 Brandon Geller / Noelle Owen 3.38 Axel Stordahl / Chloe Hudgins 3.06 4–6 Benjamin Dufour / Chloe Hudgins 3.45 3–4	41%	7–10 (41%)	+0.1
10	Boston College Eagles	6	11.09 school +0.22	Peter Busch / Sara Schumann 3.70 Jack Redmond / Michaela O'Brien 3.53 6–6 Colleen O'Brien / Libby Redmond 3.68 4–5 Colleen O'Brien / Matt Budington 3.64 2–4 Peter Joslin / Michaela O'Brien 3.35 0–3	54%	6–9 (40%)	−2.1
11	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	10.97 school +0.32	Jack Welburn / Ellie Alex 3.51 Henry Allgeier / Madeline Smith 3.48 Nathan Smith / Darby Graham 3.55 3–5 Nathan Smith / Ryan Wahba 3.76 3–4	51%	6–9 (40%)	−1.7
12	Tufts University Jumbos	13	10.14 school +0.22	Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.50 Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang 2.91 4–5 Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.43 3–5 Kurt Stuebe / Celia Byrne 3.21 2–4 Trevor Davis / Leo Terry 3.39 2–3 Trevor Davis / Cindy Wang 3.44 0–1 Connor Rosow / Amelia Carlson 2.88 1–0	34%	6–9 (40%)	+0.9
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	14	10.04 school +0.12	Sam Bruce / Jemma Schroder 3.66 Maks Groom / Ellie Pinto 3.27 Julius Heitkoetter / Yitian Zhu 2.97	32%	5–10 (33%)	+0.2
14	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	12	10.26 school +0.39	Charlie Anderson / Katherine Shermock 3.15 Madison Bashaw / Rachel O'Neill 3.04 Owen Hennessey / Zoe Hoctor 3.67	37%	4–11 (27%)	−1.5
15	Tulane University Green Wave	15	9.82 school +0.06	Hamilton Barclay / Cj Ricci 3.44 Kelly Holthus / Gillian Perrell 3.16 3–9 Zander King / Alex Makoid 3.13 1–8 Samantha Gardner / Lucy Spearman 3.21 2–1 Samantha Gardner / Gillian Perrell 3.09 0–3 Kelly Holthus / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.26 0–2 Matheo Graham-Capasso / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 2.93 0–1	28%	3–12 (20%)	−1.2
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	16	5.84 school −0.20	Gavin Dempsey / Ellie Murphy 2.36 Marley Barrett / Carter Harms 1.97 Calvin Lutton / Sam Spencer 1.59	1%	0–15 (0%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Roger Williams University	12.08	12.86	18–4	15.3	+0.78	1.5	13%
6	Georgetown University	10.96	11.41	13–11	10.8	+0.44	0.7	22%
6	Dartmouth College	11.05	11.44	12–10	10.2	+0.39	0.5	27%
12	Tufts University	10.14	10.47	6–9	5.1	+0.34	0.2	38%
2	Harvard University	12.54	12.80	18–4	17.2	+0.26	0.2	44%
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.04	10.14	5–10	4.7	+0.10	0.0	55%
4	Brown University	11.70	11.80	14–8	13.6	+0.10	0.0	52%
9	College of Charleston	10.49	10.52	7–10	6.9	+0.02	0.0	59%
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.99	11.00	11–13	11.0	+0.00	0.0	59%
3	Yale University	12.23	11.99	15–7	16.0	−0.24	0.2	78%
5	Stanford University	11.98	11.57	13–9	14.8	−0.41	0.5	87%
11	U. S. Naval Academy	10.97	10.38	6–9	7.7	−0.58	0.7	90%
15	Tulane University	9.82	9.22	3–12	4.2	−0.60	0.5	87%
14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.26	9.64	4–11	5.5	−0.62	0.6	89%
10	Boston College	11.09	10.39	6–9	8.1	−0.71	1.0	93%
16	University of Wisconsin	5.84	2.84	0–15	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.86	4.64	18–4	15.3	+0.78	1.5	13%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	4.08	4.86	18–4	15.3	+0.78	1.5	13%
Lachlain Mcgranahan	Harvard University	4.14	4.92	18–4	15.3	+0.78	1.5	13%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	3.06	3.53	4–6	3.2	+0.47	0.3	39%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.50	3.83	6–9	5.1	+0.34	0.2	38%
James Paul	Dartmouth College	3.29	3.63	11–10	9.6	+0.34	0.4	32%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.45	3.02	3–4	3.7	−0.43	0.2	83%
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.15	2.53	4–11	5.5	−0.62	0.6	89%
Peter Joslin	Boston College	3.35	2.65	6–9	8.1	−0.71	1.0	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
8	121	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Georgetown University	51%
8	122	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	57%
8	123	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	56%
8	124	Brown University	Dartmouth College	67%
8	125	Yale University	Stanford University	57%
8	126	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
8	127	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	25%	upset
8	128	Brown University	Yale University	37%	upset
8	129	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	82%
8	130	Georgetown University	Stanford University	27%	upset
8	131	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	75%
8	132	Harvard University	Yale University	57%
8	133	Georgetown University	Brown University	32%	upset
8	134	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	51%
8	135	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	52%
8	136	Georgetown University	Harvard University	17%	upset
8	137	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
8	138	Stanford University	Brown University	56%
8	139	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	74%
8	140	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Georgetown University	51%
8	141	Harvard University	Stanford University	63%
8	142	Yale University	Dartmouth College	72%
8	143	Roger Williams University	Brown University	59%
8	144	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Stanford University	27%	upset
8	145	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	48%	upset
8	146	Harvard University	Brown University	69%
8	147	Roger Williams University	Yale University	46%	upset
8	148	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	72%
8	149	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	68%
8	150	Yale University	Georgetown University	78%
8	151	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	61%
16	1	Yale University	Dartmouth College	72%
16	2	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
16	3	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	49%	upset
16	5	Roger Williams University	Brown University	59%
16	6	Stanford University	Georgetown University	73%
16	7	College of Charleston	Boston College	34%	upset
16	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tulane University	61%
16	9	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	80%
16	10	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	92%
16	11	Dartmouth College	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	72%
16	13	College of Charleston	Brown University	20%	upset
16	14	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	85%
16	15	Roger Williams University	Boston College	75%
16	16	Tulane University	Georgetown University	24%	upset
16	17	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	100%
16	18	Harvard University	Tufts University	92%
16	19	Brown University	Dartmouth College	67%
16	20	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	73%
16	21	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
16	22	Georgetown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
16	23	Yale University	Boston College	78%
16	24	Harvard University	Tulane University	94%
16	25	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	70%
16	26	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
16	27	Brown University	University of Wisconsin	100%
16	28	Tufts University	Stanford University	13%	upset
16	29	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
16	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	55%
16	31	Roger Williams University	Yale University	46%	upset
16	32	Harvard University	Georgetown University	83%
16	33	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	34	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	45%	upset
16	35	Dartmouth College	Boston College	47%	upset
16	36	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tulane University	76%
16	37	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	70%
16	38	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	87%
16	39	Yale University	College of Charleston	87%
16	40	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
16	41	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	100%
16	42	Tufts University	Tulane University	56%
16	43	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	74%
16	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Georgetown University	51%
16	45	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	32%	upset
16	46	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	St. Mary's College of Maryland	44%	upset
16	47	Yale University	Brown University	63%
16	48	Stanford University	Harvard University	36%	upset
16	49	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	100%
16	50	Georgetown University	Tufts University	70%
16	51	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	49%	upset
16	52	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	72%
16	53	Boston College	Brown University	36%	upset
16	54	Stanford University	Tulane University	90%
16	55	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	85%
16	56	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	66%
16	57	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	18%	upset
16	58	Yale University	Tufts University	87%
16	59	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	47%	upset
16	60	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
16	61	Boston College	Tulane University	79%
16	62	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	86%
16	63	Harvard University	College of Charleston	90%
16	64	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	100%
16	65	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	52%
16	66	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
16	67	Tufts University	Boston College	31%	upset
16	68	U. S. Naval Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	74%
16	69	Brown University	Harvard University	31%	upset
16	70	Stanford University	College of Charleston	84%
16	71	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	91%
16	72	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	73	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	51%
16	74	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	74%
16	75	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
16	76	Yale University	Stanford University	57%
16	77	Brown University	Georgetown University	69%
16	78	Tulane University	University of Wisconsin	98%
16	79	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	48%	upset
16	80	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	85%
16	81	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	47%	upset
16	82	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
16	83	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	52%
16	84	Brown University	Tulane University	86%
16	85	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	12%	upset
16	86	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
16	87	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	97%
16	88	Harvard University	Boston College	81%
16	89	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	34%	upset
16	90	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	68%
16	91	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	76%
16	92	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	76%
16	93	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
16	94	Harvard University	Yale University	57%
16	95	College of Charleston	Tufts University	60%
16	96	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Wisconsin	98%
16	97	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
16	98	Georgetown University	Boston College	46%	upset
16	99	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	77%
16	100	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	61%
16	101	Brown University	Stanford University	44%	upset
16	102	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	103	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	44%	upset
16	104	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
16	105	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	73%
16	106	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	70%
16	107	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	28%	upset
16	108	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	75%
16	109	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	110	Yale University	Tulane University	94%
16	111	Brown University	Tufts University	80%
16	112	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
16	113	Stanford University	Boston College	71%
16	114	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	43%	upset
16	115	Harvard University	University of Wisconsin	100%
16	116	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
16	117	Georgetown University	Yale University	21%	upset
16	118	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	33%	upset
16	119	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
16	120	Tulane University	College of Charleston	30%	upset

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Crimson	Bulldogs	Bears	Cardinal	Green	Hoyas	Bears	Cougars
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	–
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	–
Yale University Bulldogs	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	–
Brown University Bears	3–4	L	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W	–
Stanford University Cardinal	2–5	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	–
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–3	W	W	L	W	W	W	✕	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W
College of Charleston Cougars	0–2	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕

Round 16

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Crimson	Bulldogs	Bears	Cardinal	Green	Hoyas	Bears	Cougars	Eagles	Midshipmen	Jumbos	Engineers	Seahawks	Wave	Badgers
Roger Williams University Hawks	13–2	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	12–3	W	✕	W	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	11–4	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	11–4	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	11–4	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	11–4	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–8	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	L	L	L	W
Boston College Eagles	6–9	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–9	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–11	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
121	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
122	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
123	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
124	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
125	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
126	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
127	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
128	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
129	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
130	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
131	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
132	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
133	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
134	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
135	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
136	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
137	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
138	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
139	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
140	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
141	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
142	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
143	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
144	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
145	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
146	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
147	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
148	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
149	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
150	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
151	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
1	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
2	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
3	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
4	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
5	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
7	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
8	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
10	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
11	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
12	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
13	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
15	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
16	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
18	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
19	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
20	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
21	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
22	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
23	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
24	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
25	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
26	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
27	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
28	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
29	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
30	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
31	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
32	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
33	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
34	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
35	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
36	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
37	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
38	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
39	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
40	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
41	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
42	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
43	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
44	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
45	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
46	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
47	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
48	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
49	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
50	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
51	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
52	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
53	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
55	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
56	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
57	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
58	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
59	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
61	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
62	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
63	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
64	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
65	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
67	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
68	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
69	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
70	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
71	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
72	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
73	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
74	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
75	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
76	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
77	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
78	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
79	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
80	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
81	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
82	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
83	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
84	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
85	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
86	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
87	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
88	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
89	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
90	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
91	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
92	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
93	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
94	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
95	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
96	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
97	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
98	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
99	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
100	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
101	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
102	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
103	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
104	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
105	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
106	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
107	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
108	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
109	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
110	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
111	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
112	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
113	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
114	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
115	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
116	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
117	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
118	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
119	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
120	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Carlos De Castro '26 Kyle Pfrang '26	Michaela Odonnell '24 Carly Kiss '25 Claire Buckley '25
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24 Mitchell Callahan '26	Kennedy Leehealey '26 Marbella Marlo '24 Alexandra Dorofeev '25
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Morgan Pinckney '27 Stephan Baker '26 Teddy Nicolosi '24	Elle Sykes '27 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Ashley Highland '27 Sarah Moeder '26
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Guthrie Braun '26 Leyton Borcherding '25 Liam O'Keefe '26	Vera Allen '27 Emily Mueller '25 Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Savannah Young '25
Stanford University	Cardinal	Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Thomas Sitzmann '27 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Ellie Harned '26 Alice Schmid '27 Gwendolyn Donahue '24
Dartmouth College	Big Green	James Paul '23 Maddie Hawkins '24 Robert Bragg '23 Ryan Satterberg '27	Reese Bragg '25 Lilly Baker '27 Yumi Yoshiyasu '24
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Diego Escobar '25 Enzo Menditto '26 Mariner Fagan '24 Mateo Di Blasi '25	Caro Gaston '25 Spencer Kriegstein '25 Emily Panarella '24 Addi Harris '24
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Nicholas Reeser '25	Lauren O'Neill '24 Charles Pohl '26 Daniel Neville '25
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Brandon Geller '23 Noah Zittrer '26	Chloe Hudgins '24 Noelle Owen '24 Lucy Klempen '24
Boston College	Eagles	Colleen O'Brien '24 Jack Redmond '26 Peter Busch '26 Peter Joslin '26	Libby Redmond '24 Matt Budington '25 Michaela O'Brien '24 Sara Schumann '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Madeline Smith '24 Ellie Alex '26 Darby Graham '26 Ryan Wahba '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Connor Rosow '24 Kurt Stuebe '27 Trevor Davis '24 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Henry Tindall '25 Amelia Carlson '24 Celia Byrne '24 Cindy Wang '25 Leo Terry '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Maks Groom '24 Sam Bruce '24	Yitian Zhu '25 Ellie Pinto '27 Jemma Schroder '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Madison Bashaw '24 Owen Hennessey '25	Katherine Shermock '24 Rachel O'Neill '24 Zoe Hoctor '25
Tulane University	Green Wave	Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 Samantha Gardner '27 Zander King '25	Cj Ricci '25 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Gillian Perrell '24 Lucy Spearman '25 Alex Makoid '25
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Calvin Lutton '26 Gavin Dempsey '26 Marley Barrett '27	Sam Spencer '24 Ellie Murphy '24 Carter Harms '27

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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