Stanford University '27
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 70.48 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.079 rating points from 254 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | Stanford University | 4.49 | 96.41 | 72.22 | 3 of 9 | 12 | Team page | |
| Fall 2025 | Stanford University | 4.71 | 97.18 | 79.17 | 3 of 12 | 29 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | Stanford University | 4.41 | 94.50 | 56.25 | 4 of 8 | 44 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | Stanford University | 4.44 | 95.14 | 68.18 | 4 of 11 | 36 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Stanford University | 4.41 | 94.30 | 50.00 | 4 of 7 | 48 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Stanford University | 4.70 | 96.00 | 56.25 | 4 of 8 | 54 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.76 (fleet 3.74) | 75 of 328 | +0.07 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 47–3 (94%) as crew 248–64 (79%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 10 | 37–2 | 107–22 |
| Spring 2025 | 7 | 10–1 | 56–16 |
| Spring 2024 | 7 | — | 85–26 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 24 graded regattas (360 matches) the record is 293–67 against 287.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 10 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 27 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | crew | 4.33 | 5.07 | 21–1 | 20.0 | +0.74 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 2026-04-23 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | crew | 4.35 | 3.81 | 17–8 | 19.2 | −0.53 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 2026-04-11 | Thompson Trophy | crew | 4.33 | 4.99 | 13–1 | 12.4 | +0.66 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2026-04-03 | Tulane Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.34 | 6.34 | 15–0 | 13.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| 2026-03-28 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.31 | 3.98 | 12–2 | 10.7 | +0.67 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 2026-03-21 | The Friis Trophy | crew | 4.35 | 4.87 | 14–5 | 12.4 | +0.53 | 0.6 | 27% |
| 2026-03-14 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 4.41 | 3.86 | 13–7 | 14.7 | −0.55 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2026-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | crew | 4.38 | 7.38 | 9–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 32% |
| 2026-02-28 | Green Wave Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.16 | 6.16 | 10–0 | 9.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 34% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | crew | 4.38 | 7.38 | 18–0 | 17.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2025-04-27 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | crew | 4.41 | 5.49 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +1.08 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 2025-04-24 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | crew | 4.19 | 5.11 | 10–1 | 8.9 | +0.92 | 0.7 | 33% |
| 2025-04-04 | PCCSC Wahine Team Race Champs | crew | 3.56 | 6.56 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 98% |
| 2025-03-29 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | crew | 4.18 | 4.43 | 12–3 | 11.5 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2025-03-22 | 64th Jan Friis Team Race | crew | 4.04 | 3.99 | 12–4 | 12.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2025-03-08 | St. Mary's College of MD Team Race | crew | 3.94 | 4.11 | 12–7 | 11.4 | +0.17 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2025-02-08 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 2.12 | 10–1 | 10.4 | −1.03 | 0.3 | 95% |
| 2024-04-28 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.59 | 5.17 | 18–1 | 15.3 | +1.58 | 2.6 | 8% |
| 2024-04-25 | ICSA Open Team Racing National Championship | crew | 3.93 | 3.52 | 13–9 | 14.8 | −0.41 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2024-04-13 | Thompson Trophy Camel | crew | 3.80 | 6.17 | 20–1 | 15.3 | +2.37 | 6.5 | <1% |
| 2024-03-30 | The 41st Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Trophy | crew | 3.82 | 2.49 | 9–9 | 13.2 | −1.33 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2024-03-23 | 63rd Jan Friis Team Race | crew | 3.89 | 2.72 | 3–3 | 4.3 | −1.17 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 2024-03-09 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | crew | 3.90 | 3.24 | 18–3 | 19.2 | −0.66 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2024-03-02 | Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race | crew | 3.56 | 6.56 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Alice Schmid |  Point Loma High School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
