Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy

HostBrown
Date03/29/2025
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–2
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–3
3	Brown University	Bears	8–7
4	Harvard University	Crimson	7–8
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–6
6	College of Charleston	Cougars	7–7
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	6–8
8	Tulane University	Green Wave	5–9
9	Cornell University	Big Red	5–9
10	Tufts University	Jumbos	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,645 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 55 of 72 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.467 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.17 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 62% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.87 school +0.31	Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 4.07 Emma Cowles / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.86 9–2 Carmen Cowles / Julia Miller 3.62 8–0 Carmen Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.68 5–2 Emma Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.78 4–0	86%	13–2 (87%)	+0.1
2	Stanford University Cardinal	2	11.37 school +0.39	Vanessa Lahrkamp / Alice Schmid 4.18 Sophie Fisher / Ashtyn Tierney 3.43 Ellie Harned / Kit Harned 3.36	77%	12–3 (80%)	+0.5
3	Brown University Bears	3	10.54 school +0.39, home +0.36	Laura Hamilton / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.26 5–7 Katharine Doble / Francesca Edmands 3.31 5–7 Katherine Mcnamara / Savannah Young 3.22 5–7 Laura Hamilton / Francesca Edmands 3.33 3–0 Katharine Doble / Savannah Young 3.33 3–0 Katherine Mcnamara / Katherine Majette 3.11 3–0	61%	8–7 (53%)	−1.1
4	Harvard University Crimson	9	9.22 school +0.25	Kate Danielson / Amelie Zucker 2.68 Cordelia Burn / Margo Silliman 3.16 5–6 Zoey Ziskind / Sophia Montgomery 3.09 5–6 Cordelia Burn / Sophia Montgomery 3.26 2–2 Zoey Ziskind / Peyton Hadfield 3.06 2–2	34%	7–8 (47%)	+1.8
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5	8.84 school +0.21	Lucy Brock / Shayne Bersin 3.07 Brooke Schmelz / Elliott Chalcraft 3.15 Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.40	47%	8–6 (57%)	+1.4
6	College of Charleston Cougars	4	8.90 school +0.36	Emma Tallman / Andrea Melnik 3.01 Emily Alfortish / Marina Dryer 2.69 Fredrikke Foss / Clara Murphy 2.83	51%	7–7 (50%)	−0.2
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	8.62 school +0.29	Bella Casaretto / Faye Benjamin 3.20 Olivia Drulard / Sudi Zhao 2.77 Charlotte West / Sophie Menyhart 2.32	42%	6–8 (43%)	+0.1
8	Tulane University Green Wave	6	8.70 school −0.05	Gabriela Vassel / Essie Clifton 2.42 Ava Anderson / Ella May Corckran 3.14 2–7 Samantha Gardner / Hope Breslin 3.32 2–5 Samantha Gardner / Caitlin Briggs 3.28 3–4 Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson 3.04 2–1 Oakley Cunningham / Caitlin Briggs 2.33 1–1	44%	5–9 (36%)	−1.1
9	Cornell University Big Red	8	8.30 school −0.10	Ava Gustafson / Sophia Fogarty 2.45 Gilda Dondona / Ava Stevens 2.68 Winborne Majette / Kate Moran 3.24	35%	5–9 (36%)	+0.1
10	Tufts University Jumbos	10	7.55 school +0.30	Maisie Macgillivray / Eloise Goedkoop 2.35 Meredith Broadus / Nicole Morikawa 2.20 Sophia Hubbard / Lilly Ladd 2.69	19%	1–13 (7%)	−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Harvard University	9.22	10.01	7–8	5.2	+0.78	1.0	18%
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.84	9.36	8–6	6.6	+0.52	0.5	30%
2	Stanford University	11.37	11.63	12–3	11.5	+0.25	0.1	52%
1	Yale University	11.87	11.96	13–2	12.9	+0.09	0.0	64%
7	Dartmouth College	8.62	8.66	6–8	5.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
9	Cornell University	8.30	8.34	5–9	4.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
6	College of Charleston	8.90	8.84	7–7	7.2	−0.06	0.0	66%
8	Tulane University	8.70	8.28	5–9	6.1	−0.42	0.3	84%
3	Brown University	10.54	10.06	8–7	9.1	−0.48	0.4	86%
10	Tufts University	7.55	6.38	1–13	2.7	−1.16	1.2	95%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.16	3.94	7–8	5.2	+0.78	1.0	18%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.40	2.92	8–6	6.6	+0.52	0.5	30%
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.36	3.62	12–3	11.5	+0.25	0.1	52%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.62	3.71	13–2	12.9	+0.09	0.0	64%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.86	3.95	13–2	12.9	+0.09	0.0	64%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	3.20	3.24	6–8	5.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
Ava Gustafson	Cornell University	2.45	2.48	5–9	4.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
Gilda Dondona	Cornell University	2.68	2.71	5–9	4.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	3.24	3.28	5–9	4.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.83	2.77	7–7	7.2	−0.06	0.0	66%
Gabriela Vassel	Tulane University	2.42	2.00	5–9	6.1	−0.42	0.3	84%
Ava Anderson	Tulane University	3.14	2.47	4–8	5.5	−0.67	0.7	91%
Meredith Broadus	Tufts University	2.20	1.03	1–13	2.7	−1.16	1.2	95%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	College of Charleston	57%
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Cornell University	64%
1	3	Brown University	Dartmouth College	88%
1	4	Stanford University	Tulane University	93%
1	5	Yale University	Tufts University	99%
1	6	College of Charleston	Cornell University	65%
1	7	Brown University	Harvard University	78%
1	8	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
1	9	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	74%
1	10	Yale University	Tulane University	95%
1	11	Cornell University	Brown University	9%	upset
1	12	Stanford University	College of Charleston	92%
1	13	Harvard University	Tufts University	84%
1	14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	50%	upset
1	15	Yale University	Dartmouth College	96%
1	16	Brown University	Stanford University	30%	upset
1	17	Cornell University	Tufts University	68%
1	18	College of Charleston	Tulane University	70%
1	19	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	66%
1	20	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	95%
1	21	Stanford University	Tufts University	98%
1	22	Brown University	Tulane University	84%
1	23	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	58%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	49%	upset
1	25	Yale University	Harvard University	93%
1	26	Tulane University	Tufts University	78%
1	27	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	94%
1	28	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
1	29	Harvard University	Cornell University	71%
1	30	Yale University	College of Charleston	95%
1	31	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	45%	upset
1	32	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	79%
1	33	Harvard University	Stanford University	10%	upset
1	34	Brown University	College of Charleston	83%
1	35	Yale University	Cornell University	97%
1	36	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
1	37	Tulane University	Harvard University	38%	upset
1	38	College of Charleston	Tufts University	79%
1	39	Stanford University	Cornell University	96%
1	40	Yale University	Brown University	80%
1	41	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	59%
1	42	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	57%
1	43	Tulane University	Cornell University	60%
1	44	Brown University	Tufts University	95%
1	45	Yale University	Stanford University	63%
4	46	Brown University	Harvard University	78%
4	47	Stanford University	Yale University	37%	upset
4	48	Stanford University	Brown University	69%
4	49	Yale University	Harvard University	93%
4	50	Stanford University	Harvard University	90%
4	51	Yale University	Brown University	80%
4	67	Stanford University	Brown University	69%
4	68	Yale University	Harvard University	93%
4	69	Stanford University	Harvard University	90%
4	70	Yale University	Brown University	80%
4	71	Harvard University	Brown University	22%	upset
4	72	Stanford University	Yale University	37%	upset
6	52	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	45%	upset
6	53	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Cornell University	63%
6	54	College of Charleston	Tufts University	79%
6	55	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	55%
6	56	Tufts University	Tulane University	22%	upset
6	57	College of Charleston	Cornell University	64%
6	58	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	78%
6	59	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	42%	upset
6	60	Tulane University	College of Charleston	30%	upset
6	61	Cornell University	Tufts University	68%
6	62	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	51%
6	63	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	56%
6	64	Cornell University	Tulane University	40%	upset
6	65	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	75%
6	66	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	49%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Bears	Crimson	Engineers	Cougars	Green	Wave	Red	Jumbos
Yale University Bulldogs	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–2	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–7	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Bears	Crimson
Yale University Bulldogs	4–2	✕	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–0	W	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–5	L	L	✕	L
Harvard University Crimson	1–5	L	L	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Cougars	Green	Wave	Red	Jumbos
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Tulane University Green Wave	2–3	W	W	L	✕	L	L
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
2	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
4	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
6	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Big Red	2-3-6
7	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
8	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
9	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
10	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
11	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
12	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
13	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
14	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
15	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
16	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
17	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
18	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
19	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
20	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
21	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
22	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
23	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
24	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
25	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
26	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
27	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
28	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
29	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
30	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
31	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
32	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
33	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
34	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
36	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
37	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
38	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
39	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
40	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
41	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
42	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6 DNF
43	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
44	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
45	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
46	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
47	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
49	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
50	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
67	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
68	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
69	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
70	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
71	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
72	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
52	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Green Wave	1-4-6
53	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
54	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
55	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
56	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Green Wave	2-4-5
57	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
58	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
59	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
60	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
61	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
62	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
63	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
64	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
65	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
66	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Julia Miller '26 Sarah Moeder '26 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Ximena Escobar '25
Stanford University	Cardinal	Ellie Harned '26 Sophie Fisher '26 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Kit Harned '27 Ashtyn Tierney '28 Alice Schmid '27
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27	Savannah Young '25 Francesca Edmands '25 Katherine Majette '27 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Kate Danielson '28 Zoey Ziskind '27	Margo Silliman '25 Sophia Montgomery '25 Amelie Zucker '28 Peyton Hadfield '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Brooke Schmelz '25 Lucy Brock '25	Mercedes Escandon '25 Elliott Chalcraft '27 Shayne Bersin '25
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25	Marina Dryer '26 Andrea Melnik '27 Clara Murphy '27
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Charlotte West '28 Olivia Drulard '27	Faye Benjamin '25 Sophie Menyhart '27 Sudi Zhao '26
Tulane University	Green Wave	Ava Anderson '27 Gabriela Vassel '28 Oakley Cunningham '27 Samantha Gardner '27	Catherine Anderson '26 Ella May Corckran '26 Essie Clifton '25 Caitlin Briggs '27 Hope Breslin '26
Cornell University	Big Red	Ava Gustafson '28 Gilda Dondona '28 Winborne Majette '27	Sophia Fogarty '25 Ava Stevens '28 Kate Moran '27
Tufts University	Jumbos	Maisie Macgillivray '25 Meredith Broadus '25 Sophia Hubbard '28	Eloise Goedkoop '27 Nicole Morikawa '25 Lilly Ladd '26

Conditions — 03/29/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.4 kn

avg · max 9.5 kn

Gusts to 22.0 kn

From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine7.9 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1017.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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