Tulane University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.98 (fleet 2.87) | 212 of 328 | −0.08 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–67 (34%) as crew 8–13 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 4 | 17–38 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 17–29 | 8–13 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (122 matches) the record is 42–80 against 49.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.48 | 0.43 | 2–12 | 5.7 | −2.05 | 4.7 | >99% |
| 2026-04-03 | Tulane Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 1.64 | 5–10 | 7.4 | −0.96 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2026-03-28 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.53 | 3.17 | 7–9 | 5.0 | +0.65 | 0.9 | 19% |
| 2026-02-28 | Green Wave Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.48 | 2.51 | 3–7 | 3.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2025-04-27 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.39 | 3.42 | 7–9 | 4.1 | +1.03 | 2.2 | 7% |
| 2025-04-12 | Thompson Trophy - CGA | crew | 3.62 | 3.17 | 8–13 | 10.0 | −0.45 | 0.7 | 88% |
| 2025-03-29 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.42 | 2.00 | 5–9 | 6.1 | −0.42 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2025-03-22 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.37 | 1.53 | 5–11 | 7.6 | −0.84 | 1.6 | 96% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
