| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 3–7 |
| 3 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 2–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,305 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 15 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.303 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.56 ± 0.47: an orderly event, more orderly than 95% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford University Cardinal | 1 | 10.71 school +0.26 | Alice Schmid / Alexandra Jones 3.19 Sophie Fisher / Kate Myles 3.75 Samara Walshe / Kit Harned 3.50 | 90% | 10–0 (100%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | Tulane University Green Wave | 3 | 8.49 school −0.06, home +0.36 | Lola Kohl / Skye Terrell 2.25 Ava Anderson / Ella May Corckran 3.38 Gabriela Vassel / Charlotte Casey 2.51 | 29% | 3–7 (30%) | +0.1 |
| 3 | College of Charleston Cougars | 2 | 8.54 school +0.32 | Bella Shakespeare / Lucy Elvart 3.13 Ashley Alfortish / Lucy Zinn 2.79 Georgia Shuster / Gaelen Adam 2.24 | 31% | 2–8 (20%) | −1.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford University | 10.71 | 13.71 | 10–0 | 9.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| 2 | Tulane University | 8.49 | 8.52 | 3–7 | 2.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 3 | College of Charleston | 8.54 | 7.86 | 2–8 | 3.1 | −0.68 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice Schmid | Stanford University | 3.19 | 6.19 | 10–0 | 9.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| Sophie Fisher | Stanford University | 3.75 | 6.75 | 10–0 | 9.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| Samara Walshe | Stanford University | 3.50 | 6.50 | 10–0 | 9.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| Lola Kohl | Tulane University | 2.25 | 2.28 | 3–7 | 2.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Ava Anderson | Tulane University | 3.38 | 3.42 | 3–7 | 2.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Gabriela Vassel | Tulane University | 2.51 | 2.55 | 3–7 | 2.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Bella Shakespeare | College of Charleston | 3.13 | 2.45 | 2–8 | 3.1 | −0.68 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Ashley Alfortish | College of Charleston | 2.79 | 2.11 | 2–8 | 3.1 | −0.68 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Georgia Shuster | College of Charleston | 2.24 | 1.56 | 2–8 | 3.1 | −0.68 | 0.5 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Wave | Cougars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Wave | Cougars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 0–2 | L | ✕ | L |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–1 | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Wave | Cougars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 0–2 | L | ✕ | L |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–1 | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Wave | Cougars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Wave | Cougars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Green Wave | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Cardinal | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Stanford University | Cardinal | Alice Schmid '27 Samara Walshe '29 Sophie Fisher '26 |
Alexandra Jones '28 Kit Harned '27 Kate Myles '29 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Ava Anderson '27 Gabriela Vassel '28 Lola Kohl '28 |
Ella May Corckran '26 Charlotte Casey '29 Skye Terrell '29 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Ashley Alfortish '27 Bella Shakespeare '27 Georgia Shuster '29 |
Lucy Zinn '28 Lucy Elvart '28 Gaelen Adam '29 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
