Tulane University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.21 (fleet 3.02) | 179 of 331 | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 30–17 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 5 | 24–17 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 6–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (47 matches) the record is 30–17 against 29.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.56 | -0.44 | 0–3 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2026-04-02 | SEISA Women's Team Race Conference Championship | skipper | 2.45 | 5.45 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 98% |
| 2026-03-21 | Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 2.18 | 6–4 | 6.7 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2026-03-07 | Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 3.27 | 9–3 | 7.2 | +0.85 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 2026-02-28 | Green Wave Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 2.37 | 3–7 | 3.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2025-04-09 | 2025 SEISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.89 | 4.89 | 6–0 | 5.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 86% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
