Oberg Trophy

HostNortheastern
Date10/19/2024
TypeRegional
BoatFJ
Scoring3 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	C	TOT
1	Boston College	Eagles	45	25	33	103
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	42	44	49	135
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	57	70	38	165
4	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	76	67	24	167
5	Brown University	Bears	43	47	91	181
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	58	27	99	184
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	107	44	38	189
8	Tulane University	Green Wave	56	82	59	197
9	Harvard University	Crimson	46	60	104	210
10	University of Vermont	Catamounts	77	81	57	215
11	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	87	68	72	227
12	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	75	100	75	250
13	Boston University	Terriers	83	92	93	268
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	96	86	87	269
15	Northeastern University	Huskies	98	89	89	276
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	120	118	100	338
17	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	101	129	131	361
18	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	104	141	123	368

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Dartmouth College	Big Green	8	3	2	13	7	1	7	1	42	Oliver Hurwitz '25 Vivian Heitkoetter '27
Brown University	Bears	2	7	6	2	4	11	4	7	43	Mason Stang '25 Olivia Miller '25
Boston College	Eagles	1	2	4	3	5	5	16	9	45	Peter Joslin '26 Brooke Bergendahl '28
Harvard University	Crimson	3	8	5	9	1	4	12	4	46	Harrison Strom '28 Katherine Shin '27
Tulane University	Green Wave	7	4	1	8	16	10	2	8	56	John Wood '26 Alex Makoid '25
Yale University	Bulldogs	5	6	3	1	8	13	9	12	57	Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 [1-8] Sarah Moeder '26 [1-3] Ximena Escobar '25 [4-8]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	4	1	7	4	10	16	13	3	58	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Samantha Karlson '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	15	13	14	6	3	9	10	5	75	Ella Hubbard '26 Nicole Morikawa '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	6	16	10	5	6	7	15	11	76	John Eastman '25 Sean Beaver '27
University of Vermont	Catamounts	10	10	11	11	2	2	18	13	77	Calvin Lamosse '25 Will Broseman '26
Boston University	Terriers	12	12	9	18	9	18	3	2	83	Dylan Balunas '28 Meg Woolverton '27
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	9	17	13	15	11	8	8	6	87	Rebecca Schill '27 Elizabeth Wire '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	11	9	16	14	14	12	5	15	96	James Kopack '28 Lucy Lack '28
Northeastern University	Huskies	13	11	12	17	15	6	14	10	98	Aidan Boni '26 Katherine Bachmann '28
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	16	18	DNF	7	13	3	6	DNF	101	Kevin Brooksbank '27 Gabriella-Marie Diez '28
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	17	14	17	12	12	15	1	16	104	Jane Marvin '28 Simone Ford '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	RAF	5	8	16	17	17	11	14	107	Jack Derry '25 Gavin Vanmanen '27
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	14	15	15	10	18	14	17	17	120	Lewis Bragg '26 Logan Forward '28

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Boston College	Eagles	3	2	2	4	2	7	2	3	25	Alex Lech '28 Lanie Ferrarone '28
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5	1	6	3	1	5	5	1	27	William Kulas '28 Ade Larsen '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	1	9	5	2	8	3	8	8	44	Luke Zylinski '26 Grace Austin '27
Dartmouth College	Big Green	4	10	4	10	7	1	4	4	44	Ben Sheppard '27 Sudi Zhao '26
Brown University	Bears	2	3	8	1	13	6	9	5	47	Cam Spriggs '27 [1-2] Martins Atilla '27 [3-8] Menasha Leport '25 [1-2] Corinne Harrison '27 [3-8]
Harvard University	Crimson	18	17	1	7	6	2	7	2	60	Olivia Hogan-Lopez '26 [1-2] Sophia Montgomery '25 [3-8] Daniella Bregman '25 [1-2]
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	10	13	3	13	10	11	1	6	67	Jack Flores '25 Matthew Caplan '25
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6	6	11	12	15	8	3	7	68	Benjamin Stevens '25 [1-2] Sophie Brett '25 [3-8] Hazel Johnson '27 [1-2] Maizie Bartlett '27 [3-8]
Yale University	Bulldogs	7	4	16	9	5	9	11	9	70	Mathias Reimer '27 Annabel Woodworth '28
University of Vermont	Catamounts	8	12	7	16	4	13	10	11	81	Cooper Smith '27 Lucy Murphy '28
Tulane University	Green Wave	9	11	10	11	12	4	12	13	82	Bobby Rielly '25 [1-3] Ryan Ehnot '26 [4-8] Claire Lewis '27 [1-3] Mary Carter '28 [4-8]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	14	5	9	15	9	14	6	14	86	Jack Guinness '28 Stella Kim '27
Northeastern University	Huskies	12	8	15	5	14	10	15	10	89	Carter Anderson '27 Lorelei Duarte '28
Boston University	Terriers	11	7	13	8	3	17	17	16	92	Nathan Selian '25 Grace Murphy '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	15	16	12	6	11	12	13	15	100	Sophia Hubbard '28 Lilly Ladd '26
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	13	14	14	17	16	16	16	12	118	Katherine Mason '27 Hanna Sophia Dornik '28
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	17	15	17	14	18	15	14	DNF	129	Evan Tofolo '28 Hermann Elger '28
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	16	18	18	18	17	18	DNF	17	141	Griffin Stolp '27 [1-6] Ryan Becker '29 [7-8] Kylie Coxon '27 [1-6]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	4	2	3	2	1	3	1	8	24	Shea Smith '25 [1] Adrien Bellanger '25 [2-8] Magdelaina Putnam '25 [1] Lucy Belknap '25 [2-8]
Boston College	Eagles	3	3	5	6	4	7	3	2	33	Nick Budington '25 Kylie Craig '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	1	1	4	1	3	11	10	7	38	Peter Mcgonagle '25 Austin White '27
Yale University	Bulldogs	8	7	1	10	5	1	5	1	38	Alex Adams '26 Ariana Borut '27
Dartmouth College	Big Green	6	6	9	5	14	4	2	3	49	Charlotte West '28 Sophie Menyhart '27
University of Vermont	Catamounts	10	10	6	9	6	5	6	5	57	Ethan Burt '26 Brooke Willke '24
Tulane University	Green Wave	2	15	7	3	11	13	4	4	59	Lola Kohl '28 [1-6] Ashley Hoguet '26 [7-8] Ellie Spearman '25 [1-6] Parker Kumler '27 [7-8]
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	15	16	8	4	2	2	15	10	72	Shea Mcgrath '27 [1] Cole Amaral '28 [2-8] Aidan Michelow '25 [1] Ava Tobias '28 [2-8]
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	5	9	10	8	12	8	12	11	75	Meredith Broadus '25 Lilah Parker '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	9	14	18	12	8	6	14	6	87	Simon Hammarlund '28 Reilly Roedel '27
Northeastern University	Huskies	18	5	2	16	13	12	9	14	89	Sylvia Burns '26 Isabella Welch '25
Brown University	Bears	12	12	11	11	7	9	17	12	91	Grace Ivancich '28 [1-8] Reese Corckran '28 [1] Gabby Collins '28 [2-8]
Boston University	Terriers	16	8	16	7	10	10	11	15	93	Richard Kalich '26 Joy Kim '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	11	11	17	13	9	17	BKD	9	99	Ryan Hoffman '28 [1] Shayne Bersin '25 [2-8] Katelyn Battacharia '28 [1] Natalie Hatzigeorgiou '28 [2-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	14	4	12	14	15	16	8	17	100	Calvin Marsh '28 Erik Lunn '28
Harvard University	Crimson	7	13	13	15	16	15	7	18	104	Theresa Straw '28 Julia Downey '27
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	17	17	14	17	18	14	13	13	123	Isaac Thompson '27 [1-8] Gregg Orourke '28 [1-2] Taber Allen '27 [3-8]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	13	18	15	18	17	18	16	16	131	Kevin Mcneill '28 Luke Dubois '26

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Boston College Eagles	3	3	3	6	6	6	9	9
Boston University Terriers	4	4	4	7	7	7	10	10
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5	5	5	8	8	8	11	11
Brown University Bears	6	6	6	9	9	9	12	12
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	17	17	17	2	2	2	5	5
Dartmouth College Big Green	7	7	7	10	10	10	13	13
Harvard University Crimson	8	8	8	11	11	11	14	14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9	9	9	12	12	12	15	15
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	18	18	18	3	3	3	6	6
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	10	10	10	13	13	13	16	16
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	12	12	12	15	15	15	18	18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	11	11	11	14	14	14	17	17
Northeastern University Huskies	13	13	13	16	16	16	1	1
Tufts University Jumbos 1	14	14	14	17	17	17	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos 2	15	15	15	18	18	18	3	3
Tulane University Green Wave	16	16	16	1	1	1	4	4
University of Vermont Catamounts	1	1	1	4	4	4	7	7
Yale University Bulldogs	2	2	2	5	5	5	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Boston College Eagles	2	2	2	5	5	5	8	8
Boston University Terriers	3	3	3	6	6	6	9	9
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4	4	4	7	7	7	10	10
Brown University Bears	5	5	5	8	8	8	11	11
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	16	16	16	1	1	1	4	4
Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6	6	9	9	9	12	12
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	7	10	10	10	13	13
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	8	8	11	11	11	14	14
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	17	17	17	2	2	2	5	5
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	9	9	9	12	12	12	15	15
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	11	11	11	14	14	14	17	17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	10	10	10	13	13	13	16	16
Northeastern University Huskies	12	12	12	15	15	15	18	18
Tufts University Jumbos 1	13	13	13	16	16	16	1	1
Tufts University Jumbos 2	14	14	14	17	17	17	2	2
Tulane University Green Wave	15	15	15	18	18	18	3	3
University of Vermont Catamounts	18	18	18	3	3	3	6	6
Yale University Bulldogs	1	1	1	4	4	4	7	7

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C	5C	6C	7C	8C
Boston College Eagles	1	1	1	4	4	4	7	7
Boston University Terriers	2	2	2	5	5	5	8	8
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	3	3	6	6	6	9	9
Brown University Bears	4	4	4	7	7	7	10	10
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	15	15	15	18	18	18	3	3
Dartmouth College Big Green	5	5	5	8	8	8	11	11
Harvard University Crimson	6	6	6	9	9	9	12	12
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7	7	7	10	10	10	13	13
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	16	16	16	1	1	1	4	4
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	8	8	8	11	11	11	14	14
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	10	10	10	13	13	13	16	16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9	9	9	12	12	12	15	15
Northeastern University Huskies	11	11	11	14	14	14	17	17
Tufts University Jumbos 1	12	12	12	15	15	15	18	18
Tufts University Jumbos 2	13	13	13	16	16	16	1	1
Tulane University Green Wave	14	14	14	17	17	17	2	2
University of Vermont Catamounts	17	17	17	2	2	2	5	5
Yale University Bulldogs	18	18	18	3	3	3	6	6

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Peter Joslin '26	Brooke Bergendahl '28
Eagles	Alex Lech '28	Lanie Ferrarone '28
	Nick Budington '25	Kylie Craig '28
Boston University	Dylan Balunas '28	Meg Woolverton '27
Terriers	Nathan Selian '25	Grace Murphy '25
	Richard Kalich '26	Joy Kim '25
Bowdoin College	Rebecca Schill '27	Elizabeth Wire '28
Polar Bears	Benjamin Stevens '25 [1-2] Sophie Brett '25 [3-8]	Hazel Johnson '27 [1-2] Maizie Bartlett '27 [3-8]
	Shea Mcgrath '27 [1] Cole Amaral '28 [2-8]	Aidan Michelow '25 [1] Ava Tobias '28 [2-8]
Brown University	Mason Stang '25	Olivia Miller '25
Bears	Cam Spriggs '27 [1-2] Martins Atilla '27 [3-8]	Menasha Leport '25 [1-2] Corinne Harrison '27 [3-8]
	Grace Ivancich '28 [1-8]	Reese Corckran '28 [1] Gabby Collins '28 [2-8]
Dartmouth College	Oliver Hurwitz '25	Vivian Heitkoetter '27
Big Green	Ben Sheppard '27	Sudi Zhao '26
	Charlotte West '28	Sophie Menyhart '27
Harvard University	Harrison Strom '28	Katherine Shin '27
Crimson	Olivia Hogan-Lopez '26 [1-2] Sophia Montgomery '25 [3-8]	Daniella Bregman '25 [1-2]
	Theresa Straw '28	Julia Downey '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	James Kopack '28	Lucy Lack '28
Statesmen	Jack Guinness '28	Stella Kim '27
	Simon Hammarlund '28	Reilly Roedel '27
Maine Maritime Academy	Jane Marvin '28	Simone Ford '29
Mariners	Griffin Stolp '27 [1-6] Ryan Becker '29 [7-8]	Kylie Coxon '27 [1-6]
	Isaac Thompson '27 [1-8]	Gregg Orourke '28 [1-2] Taber Allen '27 [3-8]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Julius Heitkoetter '25	Samantha Karlson '25
Engineers	William Kulas '28	Ade Larsen '27
	Ryan Hoffman '28 [1] Shayne Bersin '25 [2-8]	Katelyn Battacharia '28 [1] Natalie Hatzigeorgiou '28 [2-8]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Kevin Brooksbank '27	Gabriella-Marie Diez '28
Buccaneers	Evan Tofolo '28	Hermann Elger '28
	Kevin Mcneill '28	Luke Dubois '26
Northeastern University	Aidan Boni '26	Katherine Bachmann '28
Huskies	Carter Anderson '27	Lorelei Duarte '28
	Sylvia Burns '26	Isabella Welch '25
Tufts University	John Eastman '25	Sean Beaver '27
Jumbos 1	Jack Flores '25	Matthew Caplan '25
	Shea Smith '25 [1] Adrien Bellanger '25 [2-8]	Magdelaina Putnam '25 [1] Lucy Belknap '25 [2-8]
Tufts University	Ella Hubbard '26	Nicole Morikawa '25
Jumbos 2	Sophia Hubbard '28	Lilly Ladd '26
	Meredith Broadus '25	Lilah Parker '26
Tulane University	John Wood '26	Alex Makoid '25
Green Wave	Bobby Rielly '25 [1-3] Ryan Ehnot '26 [4-8]	Claire Lewis '27 [1-3] Mary Carter '28 [4-8]
	Lola Kohl '28 [1-6] Ashley Hoguet '26 [7-8]	Ellie Spearman '25 [1-6] Parker Kumler '27 [7-8]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Jack Derry '25	Gavin Vanmanen '27
Bears	Luke Zylinski '26	Grace Austin '27
	Peter Mcgonagle '25	Austin White '27
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Lewis Bragg '26	Logan Forward '28
Mariners	Katherine Mason '27	Hanna Sophia Dornik '28
	Calvin Marsh '28	Erik Lunn '28
University of Vermont	Calvin Lamosse '25	Will Broseman '26
Catamounts	Cooper Smith '27	Lucy Murphy '28
	Ethan Burt '26	Brooke Willke '24
Yale University	Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 [1-8]	Sarah Moeder '26 [1-3] Ximena Escobar '25 [4-8]
Bulldogs	Mathias Reimer '27	Annabel Woodworth '28
	Alex Adams '26	Ariana Borut '27

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1031.4 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.4 kn

avg · max 4.6 kn

Gusts to 9.3 kn

From WSW (238°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1031.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn* · W 4 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Northeastern: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.13 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.22

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northeastern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at Northeastern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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